FORMLAB Kempton Park · 18:00 DATA PACE FORENSIC HORSES
FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Kempton Park · 18:00
Class 5 · 1m · Standard to Slow · CLASS PAR -6.0
MEDIAN OR 72 · MEDIAN FHM 64
COURSE GRADE: High (#17 of 36)
avg winning FSF 61.2 (Class 5, n=434)
BUILT 18:00 · 9 Sep 26 · 13 RUNNERS PROFILED
★ ON THE WATCH LIST2 RUNNERS IN THIS RACE FROM THE DEBRIEF LISTS · click a horse for its panel
★POTOMAC RIVER3rd Newmarket 15:10, 20 Aug 26 · case 3 · back-filled★GUNFIGHTER (IRE)5th Lingfield Park 15:55, 20 Aug 26 · case 3 · back-filled
HOW TO READ THIS REPORT · STANDING NOTE & GLOSSARY
Everything below is descriptive. The orders, figures, reads and profiles measure — they do not select, tip or recommend a horse, and no line is a bet leg. The market decides value. Figures, market and going are as of build time (see header); a ground change the BHA reports after the build is flagged in a GOING MOVED strip under the masthead (checked at T-15) but the reads are not re-struck on it. Going and surface records are context, never a downgrade — the market already prices them.
GLOSSARY — 15 TERMS · CLICK TO OPEN
graded NN% · miss NN% · n=N — module-level audit: of that module’s past claims, the share that settled HIT and the share that settled MISS, counted nightly against results and never hand-tuned. Both are shown because the modules do not share a PART convention — a 32% hit rate with a 1% miss rate is a different animal from a 41% hit rate with a 59% miss rate. null 50% appears only where the claim is graded HIT or MISS with no middle, so a coin flip is the exact baseline; where it is graded three ways, no null is stated, because there is no honest one.
HIT / PART / MISS — the three settlement outcomes used when a claim is graded against the result. Hover any grade for that module’s full split and race count.
Dotted-underlined reads — each Forensic Read carries its own hit rate on hover: the share of graded outings that read has hit, alongside its family average.
⇆ on a trainer condition — the two seasons disagree — that condition sits on opposite sides of A/E 1.00 in 2024-25 and in 2026. One of the two is noise and the row cannot say which, so read it as untested rather than as a finding. Each group header carries its own count.
A/E — actual wins divided by the wins the market’s prices implied. Betfair SP is a near-fair book, so 1.00 is the null, not zero: above it the runner or yard beat the market, below it the market was right. Where an interval is shown the figure is coloured only if that interval clears 1.00 outright.
DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER — won last time with more in hand than the assessor’s rise. Full dossier on file.
FORMLAB WATCH — flagged by the start-excuse screen.
THIN · CHAINED — collateral-form lines resting on few meetings (THIN) or read through intermediate horses (CHAINED); error compounds with chain length.
FIT n/18 · Peaks · ΔMARK · HIDDEN PEAK — defined inline at the head of the Optimal Conditions Profile.
Grey dimension — no evidence either way; scores zero. Shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch.
needs · THE LEVEL — the projected winning figure (TFR-scale pts): the median of the top-3 opposition’s prior figures plus a sealed +6pt calibration [P109] (holdout median error 0.00; ±5pt coverage 65.8%). THE LEVEL cell reads each runner’s best against it under today’s race conditions. LOW CONFIDENCE marks a wide band or thin exposure; where several runners are unraced/unexposed the read covers only the raced portion — an unexposed runner wins ~30% of races with 3+ of them (~10% with 1-2).
SEASONAL FLAG — gold note on the Time-of-year row: a profile with 3+ career wins of which 75%+ fell in this month ±1. Wins 15.7% (A/E 1.08, 2023-25 design) and 14.2% (A/E 1.11, 2026 holdout) [P113] — persistently under-priced. Descriptive, never an instruction.
FLAG: young & already proven at the level — gold note in THE LEVEL cell: a 2-3yo whose best figure already meets the projected needs. Wins 25% (A/E 1.13, 2024-26) and 29% (A/E 1.16, 2023 holdout) [P111, corrected 2026-08-23 for winner-exposure filtering].
COURSE GRADE — header strip: every course ranked on the FormLab course scale by the quality of animal it hosts (tier · rank). Avg winning FSF is the house speed figure of past winners at this course, class-matched where the course has 5+ figured winners in today’s class — otherwise the all-class average, labelled as such. Averages OR/TFR sit in the hover.
FSF — FormLab Speed Figure — the house time-based figure (course standard + daily variant), built from raw times, independent of Timeform. Its pts scale is its own: never read an FSF against a TFR.
1 · DATA2 · PACE & SETUP3 · FORENSIC4 · PROFILES
1 / 4Datawhat kind of race this is, and what the money thinks
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDER
top pick won 26.6%winner in its top 3 56.8%718 settled raceslatest day: won 6/23 · top-3 16/23
against the marketA/E 0.99 [0.88–1.10]ROI +2.8% [-15.6, +22.1]
FORENSIC READ
top pick won 23.3%winner in its top 3 53.3%718 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 26.6% · 56.8%)
against the marketA/E 1.01 [0.89–1.13]ROI +9.9% [-12.7, +39.1]one 65.0 winner is 9pp of that
THE LEDGER ON THIS RACE TYPE
every line is a settled count matched to this race · paired figures are the two test windows: design (to 31 Jul) / live (since) — a line only appears when both agree · display only, nothing here picks a horse
HOUSE RECORD IN THIS RACE TYPE · Data P1 wins: handicap 23.1% (n=641 all settled, A/E 0.962 at BSP, holdout window) · 12-15 runners 17.3% (n=133 all settled, A/E 0.943 at BSP, holdout window) · Class 5-7 26.9% (n=499 all settled, A/E 0.948 at BSP, holdout window) · all-weather 20.3% (n=172 all settled, A/E 0.921 at BSP, holdout window) · overall 27.1% · window: all 1050 settled races of the sealed study (the sidecar states no date window)
LEANclass readClass 5-7 70.7%/71% (n 787/2153) · field 12+ 75.5%/73.5% (n 525/1210) · trip 8-10.5f 71.5%/74% (n 423/1050) · +1 more cells — strong in both windows [P122]
CAVEATeditorial readfield 12+ 28%/31.8% (n 207/502) — weak in both windows [P122]
LEANtrends readClass 5-7 72.3%/70.4% (n 517/1444) · Artificial 70.2%/71.3% (n 171/815) · trip 8-10.5f 71.8%/70.8% (n 257/709) · +1 more cells — strong in both windows [P122]
LEANshape readClass 5-7 66.8%/66.9% (n 158/343) — strong in both windows [P122]
RETIREDconnectionsweak in both windows in all 10 tested contexts; retired by operator 28 Aug 26 — 11 yard angles in this field shown as description only, uncounted [P122]
SHORTdemand readtop figure 79 v the 84 this race projects to take — P1s that clear that bar win 39.7%/38.9%, those short win 22.1%/23.3% · the market already prices this (A/E ~1.0 both ways), so it reads the race, it never finds a bet [P125]
GATE CARD [P124] · struck 2026-09-09T17:34
G1 SEGMENT READSTATEDhow we have performed in races of this type — accuracy AND value, stated not judged · the backing screen treats AW as out (its own sealed rule) · the backing screen treats big-field handicaps as out · hcp=HCP SR 25.1/22.1% A/E 1.011/0.962 [0.78-1.14] UNPROVEN P/L -15.1/+18.8 (n 279/389) · field=12-15 SR 19.2/16.5% A/E 0.955/0.943 [0.49-1.39] UNPROVEN P/L +4.4/+11.4 (n 52/85) · cls=5-7 SR 30.6/25.0% A/E 1.153/0.948 [0.76-1.13] UNPROVEN P/L +32.1/+15.9 (n 219/304) · surf=Artificial SR 14.8/25.6% A/E 0.649/0.921 [0.65-1.19] UNPROVEN P/L -20.5/-20.7 (n 54/133) · trip=8-10.5f SR 27.4/31.8% A/E 0.943/1.051 [0.81-1.29] UNPROVEN P/L +1.5/+18.7 (n 117/154) · AWxhcp=HCP SR 17.6/20.5% A/E 0.839/0.947 [0.53-1.36] UNPROVEN P/L -11.8/-13 (n 34/78) · AWxfield=8+ SR 13.7/22.7% A/E 0.618/0.931 [0.61-1.25] UNPROVEN P/L -18.8/-24.5 (n 51/110) [P116b] · paired figures as the sidecar states them; it carries no window label
G2 CONVERGENCEOPENLady Manzor carries 2 of 3 desk votes, not the favourite · D Lady Manzor · F Lady Manzor · V Potomac River · T Potomac River — 2 distinct · fav Potomac River 5.9
G3 VALUEOPENLady Manzor: tissue 9.4, market 12.5 (ratio 1.33, conf HIGH), inside the 4.0-15.0 window — bigger than fair
G5 CONTEXTCLOSEDgoing Standard to Slow · 5 runner(s) carry TROUBLE flags (last 3 runs, * = corroborated [P123]): Longlai SLOW_START; Happy Banner HUNG; Potomac River CHECKED; Rhythm N Rock SLOW_START+SWITCHED*; Spirit Lead Me SWITCHED — complications present: they argue against a clean read
2/3 GATES OPEN · G1 states the segment record, it does not reject — display only [P26]; NO BET is the normal output; the operator decides
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile · window: every settled race since both orders were live (the Forensic Read from 16 Jul 26) — not the 30-day masthead window
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 516219.8%47.5%17.3%46.9%
miles (7-9f)17528%60.6%25.1%50.3%
handicaps49920.4%50.9%19.2%47.7%
big fields (12+)11813.6%37.3%17.8%39.8%
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
59 similar races at KEMPTON PARK, 7.5-8.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5, all months, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (75% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites). 10% won last time out, 37% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
41% (24/59) 4yo
24% (14/59) 5yo
24% (14/59) 3yo
Last ran
59% (35/59) 15-45d
15% (9/59) within 14d
12% (7/59) 91d+
Market
41% (24/59) favourite
31% (18/59) 4th+ in the market
17% (10/59) 3rd favourite
LTO form
49% (29/59) unplaced last time
37% (22/59) placed last time
10% (6/59) won last time
The shape of past winners here — a DESCRIPTION of the race, not a way of picking a horse. Tested three times: once a horse has run recently and sits near the head of the market, the other cells here add nothing.
YARDS AT THIS TRACK · from the Racecourse Guide · handicaps, last 3 years · the same numbers the Guide prints
Go well here
Keiran Burke 21.1% A/E 2.72 n=38 no runner today
Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 13.2% A/E 1.85 n=68 no runner today
Simon Dow 10.0% A/E 1.65 n=100 ← runs Arctician (Ire) today
Sir Mark Prescott Bt 16.2% A/E 1.50 n=68 no runner today
Jamie Osborne 13.4% A/E 1.46 n=97 no runner today
Struggle here
Charles Hills 2.4% A/E 0.23 n=83 no runner today
Gary & Josh Moore 1.3% A/E 0.27 n=76 no runner today
George Scott 4.1% A/E 0.43 n=49 no runner today
Tom Ward 4.1% A/E 0.51 n=74 no runner today
Tony Carroll 6.5% A/E 0.72 n=139 no runner today
A/E = wins v the price-expected count at BSP. A yard on a list is context, not a pick [P26]; the market prices trainers too.
SHORTLIST · ran within 45 days + first 4 in the market, ties share · 4 horses
POTOMAC RIVER 6.8 · LADY MANZOR 9.2 · HAPPY BANNER (IRE) 10 · ASTEVERDI 10 (in the first 4 but not run within 45d: SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE))
Holds the winner about 62% of the time (measured, 11,122 handicaps, both windows). The market does most of that work; the 45-day cut trims a horse. A sieve for where to spend reading time — not a selection. [P26]
THIS IS THE ONE · evidence tier on the shortlist · tissue / FHM / FSF, each strictly before today
CLEARPOTOMAC RIVER 6.8 — top on tissue · FHM; this shape fires in 44%, wins 25%, places 61%
LEANLADY MANZOR 9.2 — top on FSF; this shape fires in 62%, wins 21%, places 53%
LEANHAPPY BANNER (IRE) 10 — top on FSF; this shape fires in 62%, wins 21%, places 53%
The stated chance beside each tier has been right to within a point this year. It tells you HOW LIKELY; the price is yours. Not a selection — the operator decides.
RACES LIKE THISClass 5-6 · miles (7-9f) · handicap · big fields (12+) — how each order has done in the 26 settled races sharing this exact profile, beside the all-races base (1368 settled)
TOP PICK WONWINNER IN ITS TOP 3
DATA ORDER11.5% (3 of 26) vs 26.5% (363 of 1368) all races34.6% (9 of 26) vs 58.7% (803 of 1368) all races
FORENSIC READ7.7% (2 of 26) vs 24.6% (336 of 1368) all races26.9% (7 of 26) vs 57% (780 of 1368) all races
settled record, shared denominators — a profile read, never a pick
The Field at a Glance · figure order · every name jumps to its full card below
#RunnerFormLabORFHM · ΔDrawStyleGoingTissueMarketIn one line
1LADY MANZOR79.07261A● -119MIDPROVEN9.3112.50Level at the head of the figures (2nd), one of the two strongest finishers here
2POTOMAC RIVER78.07069AT● -14MID0/17.505.40flagged on our watch list
3HERCULEUS76.07364A● -97PROMINENT0/216.8211.00early sectional positions fit the dominant style here
4FREDA (IRE)75.07268B● -414MID1/59.5732.00among the two fastest on speed against its past fields
5HAPPY BANNER (IRE)747368A● -5
stale8MIDPROVEN8.178.80prominent in the betting
6GUNFIGHTER (IRE)73.36866A● -21MIDPROVEN9.766.40prominent in the betting
7ASTEVERDI72.37560B● -155MID0/114.8710.50early sectional positions fit the dominant style here
8ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER)72.07564BT● -1113MID1/215.0325.00runs the winning energy pattern for the track
9RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE)71.07058A● -1212HELD-UP1/1916.9738.00one of the two strongest finishers here
10LONGLAI (FR)69.37467A● -72HELD-UPPROVEN13.8915.00proven at the trip
11SAN JUANITO68.07057A● -136MIDPROVEN41.93120.00meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings
12ARCTICIAN (IRE)66.07368A● -511PROMINENTPROVEN14.7628.00the quickest away of the early types
13SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE)44.56546A● -19
stale3HELD-UPPROVEN69.9615.50proven at the trip
Sire Lens — young & unexposed runners · all-weather · paid lens = wins v price-expected; ability lens = top-3 v what runners at those prices normally manage (near-misses count) · context only [P26]
RUNNERSIRERUNSWINSTOP-3PAID LENS (WIN A/E)ABILITY LENS (FRAME V EXP)
Royale Goodnight (Ger) lightly raced (4 runs)Golden Horn42211.1%38.4%0.881.07
The Pace Map · stalls across · projected early position down · drawn from the same reads as the text · [P26]FRONTPROMINENTMIDHELD-UP1234567891011121314HerculeusArcticianGunfighterPotomac RiverAsteverdiSan JuanitoHappy BannerLady ManzorRoyale GoodnightFredaLonglaiSpirit Lead MeRhythm N Rock
2 / 4Pace & Race Setuphow this race gets run
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types).
This track · what has happened here before — every figure below carries its own count
What this course & distance favours
How often each running style actually wins here — out of every runner that raced that way, not just the winners: front-runners 14% of 404 · prominent racers 13% of 609 · midfield runners 10% of 521 · hold-up closers 5% of 635. Read from 2,169 runners with an early-position read. Share of past winners (NOT a strike rate — it does not say the style outperforms): prominent racers 35% · front-runners 26%. From 217 past C&D winners · won up with the pace. Flat finish; short straight on inner loop (~2f), longer on outer (~2.5f). Winners’ energy signature: 48.12% spent early (band 47.31–48.88%, 291 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.4s off the lead). graded 34% · miss 26% · n=2221 Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
On the clock here (all-weather) — races here run the opening third at 100.6 and the final furlong at 99.8 per cent of their own average furlong (all-weather norms 100.1 and 101.4) — an early pace about typical for the surface, with a faster finish than most — a turn of foot counts · 1,079 races; the horse leading at halfway goes on to win 18.9% of the time against a 11.2% by-chance line — 1.69× · 1,061 races. Racing TV sectionals & timing 2024→, from the Course Timing and Pace Shape censuses — describes the track, never a horse.
This courseranks #17 of 36 GB courses on class quality · typical race: class 5 · avg field 10 · favourites 32% (A/E 1.03, 753 races) · front-biased — 67% of winners race early · flat finish; short straight on inner loop (~2f), longer on outer (~2.5f)
Today’s field · each horse’s last 6 timed runs unless the line says otherwise
Where the pace is drawn · 13 runners · stalls 1–14
1234567891011121314
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–14).
The pace map · measured early lanes · L# = late-speed rank
FRONT—
PROMINENT7HERCULEUSL1211ARCTICIANL5
MID1GUNFIGHTERL74POTOMAC RIVERL95ASTEVERDIL106SAN JUANITOL118HAPPY BANNERL59LADY MANZORL113ROYALE GOODNIGHTL414FREDAL3
HELD-UP2LONGLAIL83SPIRIT LEAD MEL1312RHYTHM N ROCKL2
Each horse in its usual early lane — the measured run-style read, not a prediction of today’s break — with its stall and its rank on Finishing Power rank in this field. The early/late split at a glance: a front-lane horse ranked low on late speed needs controlling; a held-up horse ranked L1–L2 needs pace to close into.
The Setup ReadPACE × COURSE × FIELD · COUNTED
What today asks of this field: a contested early pace. Each column ticks the best match in THIS field and crosses the worst — hover any cell for its basis.
RunnerShapeEnergyFinishDrawStrideBreakNet
Lady Manzor✓–✓–––+2
Gunfighter––––✓–+1
Rhythm N Rock✓–✓–✗–+1
San Juanito–––––✓+1
Asteverdi––––––+0
Freda––––––+0
Happy Banner––––––+0
Potomac River––––––+0
Royale Goodnight––––––+0
Arctician✗–––––-1
Herculeus✗–––––-1
Longlai–––––✗-1
Spirit Lead Me––✗–––-1
Herculeus, Arctician both race up with the pace — early pressure is likely.Lady Manzor’s case is cumulative, not single-factor — 2 of the 6 dimensions: top-2 late speed in this field into a likely pace collapse · 2 early types guarantee a finish that decides and it is this field's top [P48] finisher.If the pressure holds to the line the collapse profits Lady Manzor and Rhythm N Rock.The next best cards in the field: Gunfighter counters on stride (the field's longest stride (7.59 m, +0.37 over the field average)); Rhythm N Rock counters on shape (top-2 late speed in this field into a likely pace collapse).And the matrix reads Spirit Lead Me worst set up (net -1): the weakest [P48] finisher in this field, and 2 early types guarantee a finish that decides.The count says Lady Manzor (net +2) — while the market prefers Potomac River, whose case the matrix scores weaker. The divergence, not the read, is what deserves the second look.
EVERY CELL A FIXED RULE QUOTING ITS MEASURED BASIS (HOVER) · NET IS A COUNT, NOT A WEIGHT · CONTEXT, NEVER A SELECTION [P26]
Draw at this track · share of winners by stall thirdno meaningful draw bias here
LOW35%IV 1.05
MID36%IV 1.10
HIGH29%IV 0.86
basis: KEMPTON PARK, miles, all goings, 314 races · context only — describes the track, not any runner
whole-career records — not the last-6 window
RunnerDrawEarly laneEarly effortFinishing powerSetup
ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER) 13 MID 47.9% #4 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ASTEVERDI 5 MID 49.7% #10 held up without the late gear (10th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
LONGLAI (FR) 2 HELD-UP 50.1% #8 solid late gains (8th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
HERCULEUS 7 PROMINENT 52.7% #12 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
HAPPY BANNER (IRE) 8 MID 49.2% #5 solid late gains (5th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
ARCTICIAN (IRE) 11 PROMINENT 49.9% #5 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
LADY MANZOR 9 MID 48.0% #1 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
FREDA (IRE) 14 MID 48.5% #3 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SAN JUANITO 6 MID 52.1% #11 held up without the late gear (11th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
POTOMAC RIVER 4 MID 49.9% #9 one-paced late — 9th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) 12 HELD-UP 48.2% #2 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GUNFIGHTER (IRE) 1 MID 49.7% #7 held up without the late gear (7th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) 3 HELD-UP 49.8% #13 one-paced late — 13th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
Finishing Power ranks where each horse’s final 2f placed among the horses it actually raced against, over its last 6 timed runs. #1 is the strongest finisher in today’s field on that measure.
They spread 4.7 points on early effort (47.9% to 52.7%) — the higher numbers work hardest before the final 2f.
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ARCTICIAN (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
HERCULEUSPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.17s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front
Finishing Power · [P48] registered read · final-2f percentile, last 6 timed runs
1LADY MANZOR0.812RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE)0.763FREDA (IRE)0.724ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER)0.685HAPPY BANNER (IRE)0.675ARCTICIAN (IRE)0.677GUNFIGHTER (IRE)0.628LONGLAI (FR)0.589POTOMAC RIVER0.5410ASTEVERDI0.5211SAN JUANITO0.4612HERCULEUS0.4613SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE)0.40
Graded record (holdout, 2,458 races): its top pick won 15.14% against an any-runner baseline of 11.01%; the winner came from its top 3 40.93% of the time; A/E 1.031. BSP-offset beta CI spans zero — the market already prices this read; context, never value.
3 / 4Forensicthe reads, counted and argued — in one place
SIXTY-SECOND VERDICT
THE SHAPEA 13-runner Class 5 handicap mile-range contest over 8f on Standard to Slow ground. Winners here typically raced recently (75% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites).
THE PACEEven/unclear early shape: 2 early types (ARCTICIAN (IRE), HERCULEUS). Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–14).
THE LEANBoth orders land on LADY MANZOR -- Level at the head of the figures (2nd), one of the two strongest finishers here; figure top-2.
THE DANGERLittle to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. POTOMAC RIVER is the one to beat it — an edge LADY MANZOR lacks: flagged on our watch list.
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (75% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, LADY MANZOR leads on 79, 1pt clear of POTOMAC RIVER — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making POTOMAC RIVER the 19% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
WHY THIS P1 · LADY MANZOR: figure rank 1 of 13 · 3 desks converge [figure, clock, form] · slim counter 2/3 · NOT the slim-counter leader (Potomac River is)
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 9
LADY MANZOR
OR 72 · FHM 61 A● -11 · Jack Dace / Amanda Perrett
MARKET drifting 9.2 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 6−AW-PROVEN — 3/14 on the all-weather2lb below its last winning mark (72 today vs 74)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
POTOMAC RIVER
OR 70 · FHM 69 AT● -1 · Jack Mitchell / T. J. Kent
MARKET backed 6.8 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 19% chance
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (78.0)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
HERCULEUS
OR 73 · FHM 64 A● -9 · Lewis Edmunds / William Muir & Chris Grassick
MARKET backed 14.5 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
76.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−4lb below its last winning mark (73 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.74)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED
3 runners tie on net +6. The order between them below is the FIGURE tie-break, not a ranking.
1LADY MANZORnet +6TIED 1/3 with POTOMAC RIVER (2nd), HERCULEUS (3rd)+ figure top-2+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ top-2 late speed today+ energy in the winning band+ fits the winner profile on recency
2POTOMAC RIVERnet +6TIED 2/3 with LADY MANZOR (1st), HERCULEUS (3rd)+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ market top-3+ backed since morning+ FormLab watch flag+ fits the winner profile on market position+ fits the winner profile on recency− clock FADE
3HERCULEUSnet +6TIED 3/3 with LADY MANZOR (1st), POTOMAC RIVER (2nd)+ drops in class+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ backed since morning+ early sectional positions fit the dominant style here+ proven at trip+ fits the winner profile on recency+ meets much weaker company by the marks− burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
VALUE ORDER (figure votes silenced · [P79] · forward-tracked from 12 Aug) · 1. POTOMAC RIVER · 2. HERCULEUS · 3. LADY MANZOR
COMPOSITE ORDER (FHM × FIGURE · rank blend · [P130-FHM-E]) · 1. POTOMAC RIVER · 2. FREDA (IRE) · 3. HAPPY BANNER (IRE)
Optimal Conditions ProfilePEAKS · LAST 24 MONTHS · TOP 4 BY RATING
Each horse read BACKWARD from its best recent runs: the conditions on its peak days versus today, dimension by dimension. Every horse is scored out of the same 18 dimensions — grey means no evidence, and scores nothing.
how to read this section
FIT n/18 — how many of 18 conditions today match the horse’s recent peak days. Every horse is scored out of the same 18, so scores compare across the field.
✓ green = today matches its peak-day conditions · ✗ red = today differs · · grey = no evidence either way (scores 0 — shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch).
Peaks — its best runs in the last 24 months, within 7lb of its best figure (max 4). A horse needs 8+ career runs to be profiled at all.
HIDDEN PEAK — a near-best run at BSP 16+ : the market missed its best day.
ΔMARK — today’s mark minus the mark it carried at its best handicap peak; 0 or less = it has peaked off this mark before.
GUNFIGHTER (IRE) 11/18 · POTOMAC RIVER 11/18 · LONGLAI (FR) 10/18 — open all 11 profiles
GUNFIGHTER (IRE)
today · OR 68 · draw 1 (low) · mid · 6.4 (steady) · David Egan · yard 14d normal
11/18
FIT 0.61
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today — with the ground, the trip, the class, the race shape, freshness, the weight and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: this is a stronger grade of track than it has peaked at; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; expected to race differently to how it peaked; the wrong time of year against its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 63.7 — the market never saw it coming. It is 2lb above the mark it peaked off.
✓ GOING/SURF · 2/4 AW ✗ TRACK · 3/4 Mid-tier · today High (#17) ✗ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 7.1f±220y ✓ CLASS · 2/4 C5 ✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 68±4lb ✓ MARK · 2/4 in 66±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on ✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 prominent ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 4/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-5±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 hot ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 2/4 steady/unfancied
ΔMARK +2HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 63.7
sectional signature · fsp 102.7% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true · prominent early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 11 rated of 12 in window · 20 career)
77 · 5 Jul 26 · Southwell 7.1f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 66 · 9-5 · off 26d · vs median 68 field (10 rated) · fin 1/10 · draw 2/10 (low; no day edge) · BSP 6.2 steady · true-run, fsp 103.5% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.21, n 15) · David Egan
75 · 16 Jul 25 · Yarmouth 7.0f · Mid track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 73 · 9-11 · off 12d · fin 3/8 · draw 1/8 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 63.7 unfancied · Jack Callan
72 · 20 Aug 26 · Lingfield Park 7.0f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 69 · 9-10 · off 20d · vs median 69 field (11 rated) · fin 5/11 · draw 10/11 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 6.4 steady · true-run, prominent early, fsp 101.9% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.28, n 24) · Pat Dobbs
71 · 8 Jun 25 · Goodwood 6.0f · Elite track · Good to Soft · C3 hcp · OR 82 · 9-1 · off 76d · fin 4/6 · draw 3/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 58.7 unfancied · Jack Callan
POTOMAC RIVER
today · OR 70 · draw 4 (low) · mid · 5.4 (fancied) · Jack Mitchell
11/18
FIT 0.61 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the level of opposition it peaks against — with the track grade, the trip, the class, the race shape, freshness, the weight and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; expected to race differently to how it peaked; the wrong time of year against its peaks; a different field size to its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 29.2 — the market never saw it coming.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 good-side ✓ TRACK · 3/4 Elite-tier · today High (#17) ✗ HANDED · 2/4 left/straight ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 7.1f±220y ✓ CLASS · 3/4 C5 ✓ LEVEL · 2/4 in 72±4lb ✓ MARK · 2/3 in 70±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/2 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 3/4 pace-on ✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 held-up ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 3/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11)/small (<=7) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-7±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 2/4 no headgear/tongue-tie · YARD 14D · no peak data ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 3/4 steady
ΔMARK +0HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 29.2
sectional signature · fsp 103.2% avg over 4 timed peaks · pace 3 true, 1 slow · held-up early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 8 rated of 8 in window · 8 career)
78 · 19 Sep 25 · Newcastle 7.1f · High track · Slow (AW) · C5 non-hcp · 9-7 · tongue-tie · off 34d · fin 3/6 · draw 6/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 6.3 steady · slow-run, fsp 109.3% · Ray Dawson
78 · 20 Aug 26 · Newmarket 8.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C5 hcp · OR 70 · 9-11 · off 13d · vs median 72 field (7 rated) · fin 3/7 · draw 1/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 8.1 steady · true-run, held-up early, fsp 97.4% · Jamie Spencer
76 · 7 Aug 26 · Haydock Park 7.0f · Elite track · Good · C5 hcp · OR 71 · 9-6 · off 29d · vs median 71 field (11 rated) · fin 4/11 · draw 11/11 (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 29.2 unfancied · true-run, fsp 107.7% · Jack Mitchell
75 · 19 Jun 26 · Newmarket 7.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-5 · tongue-tie · off 37d · vs median 76 field (10 rated) · fin 7/10 · draw 10/10 (high; no day edge) · BSP 12.6 steady · true-run, fsp 98.5% · George Wood
LONGLAI (FR)
today · OR 74 · draw 2 (low) · held-up · 15.0 (steady) · Benoit de la Sayette · yard 14d hot
10/18
FIT 0.56 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the race looks like being run the way its peaks were and the same track it peaks at — with the ground, the direction, the trip, freshness, the time of year and the field size all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 85.0 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 3/4 AW ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Kempton Park ✓ HANDED · 2/4 right ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 8.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/4 C2 ✗ LEVEL · 1/4 in 84±4lb ✗ MARK · 4/4 in 85±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/4 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/46-90d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 autumn ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+)/mid (8-11) ✗ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 8-10±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 3/4 unfancied
ΔMARK -11HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 85.0
sectional signature · fsp 106.9% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 11 rated of 11 in window · 17 career)
88 · 20 Jun 25 · Newmarket 8.0f · Elite track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 85 · 9-11 · off 63d · fin 3/10 · draw 4/10 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 85.0 unfancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 15) · Aidan Keeley
85 · 12 Dec 24 · Chelmsford City 8.0f · Mid track · Slow (AW) · C2 hcp · OR 86 · 8-10 · off 22d · fin 7/9 · draw 7/9 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 8.8 steady · Rob Hornby
84 · 20 Nov 24 · Kempton Park 8.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C2 hcp · OR 87 · 8-11 · off 74d · fin 10/14 · draw 8/14 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 48.4 unfancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 10) · Rob Hornby
84 · 8 Oct 25 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-4 · off 45d · vs median 84 field (14 rated) · fin 7/14 · draw 4/14 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 26.9 unfancied · true-run, fsp 106.9% · Pat Cosgrave
SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE)
today · OR 65 · draw 3 (low) · held-up · 15.5 (steady) · Finley Marsh · yard 14d cold
10/18
FIT 0.56 · 4 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the headgear it peaks in and the same track it peaks at — with the ground, the direction, the trip, freshness, the time of year, the field size and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Kempton Park ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✓ TRIP · 2/4 in 8.1f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/4 C4/C6 · LEVEL · no peak data · MARK · no pattern in peaks ✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 46-90d/<=14d ✓ SEASON · 4/4 autumn ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+) ✗ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-9±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/4 cheekpieces ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 normal ✓ JOCKEY · 2/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 3/4 fancied
ΔMARK -5
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 21 rated of 22 in window · 25 career)
85 · 27 Sep 25 · Southwell 8.1f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C6 hcp · OR 70 · 10-1 · cheekpieces · off 3d · fin 1/12 · draw 3/12 (low; no day edge) · BSP 3.7 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.41, n 33) · Donagh Murphy
82 · 24 Sep 25 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Slow (AW) · C6 hcp · OR 64 · 9-9 · cheekpieces · off 50d · fin 1/13 · draw 6/13 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 4.3 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.03, n 34) · Finley Marsh
81 · 25 Nov 25 · Wolverhampton 8.6f · Lower track · Slow (AW) · C4 non-hcp · OR 77 · 9-3 · cheekpieces · off 59d · fin 4/10 · draw 8/10 (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 12.0 steady · Donagh Murphy
78 · 6 Nov 24 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-10 · off 12d · fin 3/7 · draw 2/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 2.8 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.94, n 14) · Finley Marsh
ASTEVERDI
today · OR 75 · draw 5 (mid) · mid · 10.5 (steady) · Rossa Ryan · yard 14d cold
9/18
FIT 0.5 · 4 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the trip, the time of year, the weight, yard form, the rider and the market position all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; a mark above where it peaks; different headgear to its peaks; a different field size to its peaks. Unread: running style and the ground.
· GOING/SURF · no pattern in peaks ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#17) ✗ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 8.3f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/4 C4 · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 4/4 in 80±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 autumn/summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-7±4lb ✗ HEADGEAR · 3/4 no headgear ✓ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 3/4 steady
ΔMARK -5
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 11 rated of 11 in window · 19 career)
89 · 30 Oct 24 · Nottingham 8.3f · Mid track · Heavy · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-7 · cheekpieces · off 17d · fin 1/6 · draw 4/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 4.9 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.69, n 20) · Rossa Ryan
87 · 6 Jul 25 · Ayr 8.0f · High track · Good to Soft · C3 hcp · OR 83 · 9-9 · off 249d · fin 3/8 · draw 4/8 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 11.0 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.58, n 18) · Billy Loughnane
85 · 26 Jul 25 · Chester 10.3f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 83 · 10-0 · off 20d · fin 5/9 · draw 8/9 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 6.9 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.05, n 25) · Jason Watson
85 · 6 Sep 25 · Ascot 8.0f · Elite track · Good · C2 hcp · OR 82 · 8-13 · off 42d · fin 4/8 · draw 4/8 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 7.0 steady · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.05, n 30) · Cieren Fallon
LADY MANZOR
today · OR 72 · draw 9 (mid) · mid · 12.5 (steady) · Jack Dace
9/18
FIT 0.5 · 5 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the same track it peaks at and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the ground, the direction, the trip, the rider and the market position all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; a mark above where it peaks; a weight outside where it peaks; a different field size to its peaks. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Kempton Park/Lingfield Park ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 7.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 3/4 C4 · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 3/4 in 76±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d · SEASON · no pattern in peaks ✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-1±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear · YARD 14D · no peak data ✓ JOCKEY · 3/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 3/4 steady
ΔMARK -4
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 17 rated of 17 in window · 18 career)
85 · 27 Aug 25 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-1 · off 22d · fin 2/8 · draw 3/8 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 7.6 steady · Saffie Osborne
84 · 23 Sep 25 · Lingfield Park 8.0f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-3 · off 27d · fin 4/10 · draw 6/10 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 10.8 steady · Jack Dace
83 · 31 Dec 25 · Lingfield Park 7.0f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-9 · off 99d · fin 5/6 · draw 5/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 5.0 fancied · Jack Dace
80 · 5 Mar 25 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 70 · 9-4 · off 42d · fin 1/9 · draw 4/9 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 10.3 steady · Jack Dace
ARCTICIAN (IRE)
today · OR 73 · draw 11 (high) · prominent · 28.0 (unfancied) · Alec Voikhansky
8/18
FIT 0.44 · 3 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the ground, the trip, the class, the time of year and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: this is a stronger grade of track than it has peaked at; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks; the race may not be run the way its peaks were. Its best recent run came at BSP 36.0 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style and the draw.
✓ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW ✗ TRACK · 3/4 Mid-tier · today High (#17) ✗ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 8.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 2/4 C4/C5 ✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 78±4lb ✗ MARK · 3/4 in 78±3lb · DRAW · no pattern in peaks ✗ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 slow-run · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 autumn/spring ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11)/small (<=7) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-8±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear · YARD 14D · 1/4 hot ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 2/4 unfancied
ΔMARK -2HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 36.0
sectional signature · fsp 109.3% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 slow
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 22 rated of 22 in window · 39 career)
85 · 3 Nov 25 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 75 · 9-12 · off 20d · fin 1/7 · draw 3/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 5.1 fancied · Paddy Bradley
84 · 20 Mar 26 · Lingfield Park 8.0f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 78 · 9-6 · off 109d · vs median 78 field (10 rated) · fin 3/10 · draw 9/10 (high; no day edge) · BSP 36.0 unfancied · slow-run, fsp 109.0% · Paddy Bradley
84 · 14 Apr 26 · Lingfield Park 8.0f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-8 · off 25d · vs median 77 field (11 rated) · fin 4/11 · draw 6/11 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 8.6 steady · slow-run, fsp 109.6% · Paddy Bradley
82 · 3 Sep 25 · Lingfield Park 8.0f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 71 · 9-10 · off 21d · fin 1/7 · stall 10 (7 ran) (small field — no draw read) · BSP 18.3 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.27, n 11) · Paddy Bradley
HAPPY BANNER (IRE)
today · OR 73 · draw 8 (mid) · mid · 8.8 (steady) · Tom Marquand · yard 14d normal
8/18
FIT 0.44 · 2 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the weight and the headgear all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; the wrong time of year against its peaks. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 3/4 firm-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#17) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 8.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 3/4 C4 · LEVEL · no pattern in peaks ✓ MARK · 3/3 in 76±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 3/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-7±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 2/4 no headgear/cheekpieces+tongue-tie ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 4/4 fancied
ΔMARK +0
sectional signature · fsp 106.1% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 16 rated of 16 in window · 16 career)
83 · 9 Jul 26 · Epsom Downs 8.5f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C5 hcp · OR 73 · 10-2 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 12d · vs median 68 field (8 rated) · fin 2/8 · draw 2/8 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 4.8 fancied · true-run, fsp 108.1% · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.91, n 34) · Ashley Lewis
80 · 11 Dec 24 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 non-hcp · 9-7 · off 19d · fin 1/11 · draw 6/11 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 3.1 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 11) · Hector Crouch
80 · 20 Jun 25 · Redcar 10.0f · Lower track · Firm · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-8 · off 34d · fin 3/8 · draw 1/8 (low; no day edge) · BSP 3.5 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.42, n 23) · Paul Mulrennan
79 · 29 Jul 26 · Sandown Park 8.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-7 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 20d · vs median 81 field (5 rated) · fin 4/5 · draw 4/5 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 4.0 fancied · true-run, fsp 104.2% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.21, n 36) · Ashley Lewis
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE)
today · OR 70 · draw 12 (high) · held-up · 38.0 (unfancied) · Kieren Fox · yard 14d normal
8/18
FIT 0.44 · 7 unknowable
from 2 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the race looks like being run the way its peaks were and the same track it peaks at — with the ground, the direction, the trip and the field size all matching its peak days. Against: stronger opposition than its peaks came against; today's rider has never had it at a peak. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 2/2 AW ✓ TRACK · 2/2 Kempton Park ✓ HANDED · 2/2 right ✓ TRIP · 2/2 in 8.0f±220y · CLASS · no pattern in peaks ✗ LEVEL · 1/2 in 68±4lb · MARK · no pattern in peaks ✓ DRAW · 1/2 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/2 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) · FRESHNESS · no pattern in peaks · SEASON · no pattern in peaks ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/2 big (12+) · WEIGHT · no pattern in peaks ✓ HEADGEAR · 2/2 no headgear ✗ YARD 14D · 2/2 hot ✗ JOCKEY · 0/2 peaks under today's rider · MARKET · no pattern in peaks
ΔMARK -15
sectional signature · fsp 102.0% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (2 qualifying · 13 rated of 13 in window · 19 career)
83 · 2 Oct 24 · Kempton Park 8.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 85 · 10-0 · off 25d · fin 9/14 · draw 4/14 (low; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 8.8 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.36, n 19) · Luke Morris
77 · 27 May 26 · Kempton Park 8.0f · High track · Slow (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 66 · 9-9 · off 70d · vs median 68 field (14 rated) · fin 1/14 · draw 8/14 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 17.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 102.0% · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.14, n 15) · Chloe Lyons
HERCULEUS
today · OR 73 · draw 7 (mid) · prominent · 11.0 (steady) · Lewis Edmunds · yard 14d cold
5/18
FIT 0.28 · 10 unknowable
from 2 peaks
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: the track grade, the trip, the weight, the rider and the market position match its peak days. Against: the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today; a different field size to its peaks; the wrong way round for it. Unread: running style and the ground.
· GOING/SURF · no pattern in peaks ✓ TRACK · 1/2 Elite-tier · today High (#17) ✗ HANDED · 2/2 left ✓ TRIP · 2/2 in 8.0f±220y · CLASS · no pattern in peaks · LEVEL · no peak data · MARK · no pattern in peaks ✗ DRAW · 1/2 readable peaks with the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) · FRESHNESS · no pattern in peaks · SEASON · no pattern in peaks ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/2 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/2 in 9-7±4lb · HEADGEAR · no pattern in peaks · YARD 14D · no peak data ✓ JOCKEY · 2/2 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 2/2 steady
ΔMARK -4
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (2 qualifying · 11 rated of 12 in window · 12 career)
87 · 28 Aug 25 · Newbury 8.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-7 · cheekpieces · off 69d · fin 1/9 · draw 2/9 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 7.5 steady · Lewis Edmunds
81 · 20 May 25 · Nottingham 8.3f · Mid track · Good · C5 hcp · OR 73 · 9-7 · off 22d · fin 1/9 · draw 5/9 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 11.4 steady · Lewis Edmunds
SAN JUANITO
today · OR 70 · draw 6 (mid) · mid · 120.0 (unfancied) · Rob Hornby
5/18
FIT 0.28 · 5 unknowable
from 3 peaks
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the ground, the trip and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: this is a stronger grade of track than it has peaked at; a different class to its peaks; the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today; the wrong time of year against its peaks. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 3/3 AW ✗ TRACK · 2/3 Lower-tier · today High (#17) ✗ HANDED · 3/3 left ✓ TRIP · 3/3 in 8.6f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/3 C4 · LEVEL · no peak data · MARK · no pattern in peaks ✗ DRAW · 1/1 readable peaks with the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours front (35% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/3 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 2/3 spring ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/3 small (<=7) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/3 in 9-3±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/3 no headgear · YARD 14D · no peak data ✗ JOCKEY · 0/3 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/3 fancied
ΔMARK -12
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (3 qualifying · 13 rated of 14 in window · 14 career)
89 · 7 Apr 25 · Wolverhampton 9.5f · Lower track · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-8 · off 16d · fin 1/6 · draw 4/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 3.5 fancied · Robert Havlin
83 · 28 Feb 25 · Southwell 8.1f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-3 · off 35d · fin 3/6 · draw 6/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 9.6 steady · Robert Havlin
83 · 22 Mar 25 · Wolverhampton 8.6f · Lower track · Slow (AW) · C5 non-hcp · 9-2 · off 22d · fin 1/9 · draw 3/9 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 3.1 fancied · Robert Havlin
Not profiled — insufficient recent form (never a guess)
ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER) career too short to profile — 4 runs in the results database (need 8)
FREDA (IRE) career too short to profile — 5 runs in the results database (need 8)
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 45% · miss 39% · n=1023
ON THE MEASURED READS
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. POTOMAC RIVER is the one to beat it — an edge LADY MANZOR lacks: flagged on our watch list.
ON RACE SHAPE
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
Two lenses, two questions — the reads ask who measures closest; the shape asks who profits if the race falls apart.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours. Measured: editorial-family reads sit in the generic bucket that grades 42.0% hit v 48.1% for horse-specific measured reads (C7 gate) — argument, weighted below the measurements.
Worth A Second Look graded 28% · miss 72% · n=1137 · null 50%
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
HAPPY BANNER (IRE)  FIGURE #5
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
GUNFIGHTER (IRE)  FIGURE #6
John Butler's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 22.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE)  FIGURE #9
John Butler's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 22.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
LONGLAI (FR)  FIGURE #10
George Baker's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 11.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
4 / 4Horse Profilesevery runner in full — career, conditions, clock and market
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 LADY MANZOR MID
DRAW 9 · OR 72 · 9-6 · −5lb claim = 9-1 carried · FHM 61 A● -11 · Jack Dace / Amanda Perrett
MARKET drifting 9.2 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 6−
79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
70SPEED FIGURE · =1 OF 14 READ
9.31
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 11% chance
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 85
Speed Figure (FSF)
41 latest (22 Aug 26) · best 70 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance · 1m
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield-closer — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.29% (sustains — still going at the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #1 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 85 (378d ago · 7f · Class 4) — level with the projected 85. 50% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 12 months.
Record on today’s going
3 wins from 14 runs, 6 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
1 win from 6 runs, 3 top-3 at Kempton Park
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Amanda Perretthere 5/58 · 9% · A/E 1.21Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 3rd in a Class 5 0-75 handicap off 73 (Lingfield Park, 22 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 72 is 3 lb under the 75 ceiling. Same band as last time.
Course scale · class context
steps up 6 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → KEMPTON PARK 17th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Sits level with today's median (OR 72 v field 72) · a near-level field move (-2lb) on last time (LINGFIELD PARK · 22 Aug 26) · on our own book 3lb below the field (FHM 61 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
3rdC5 · 1mrated 794thC5 · 1mrated 734thC5 · 1mrated 804thC3 · 7frated 774thC4 · 7frated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LADY MANZORneeds 85–88best 8526 Mar 25 · TFR 75 · 7f · Standard · C518 Apr 25 · TFR 80 · 7f · Standard · C418 May 25 · TFR 79 · 1m · Good to Firm · C414 Jun 25 · TFR 73 · 1m · Good to Firm · C45 Aug 25 · TFR 78 · 7f · Good to Firm · C427 Aug 25 · TFR 85 · 7f · Standard · C423 Sep 25 · TFR 84 · 1m · Standard · C431 Dec 25 · TFR 83 · 7f · Standard · C427 Feb 26 · TFR 74 · 7f · Slow · C220 Mar 26 · TFR 80 · 1m · Standard · C43 Apr 26 · TFR 78 · 7f · Standard · C428 Apr 26 · TFR 77 · 7f · Good · C320 May 26 · TFR 80 · 1m · Slow · C510 Jun 26 · TFR 73 · 1m · Slow · C522 Aug 26 · TFR 79 · 1m · Standard · C526 Mar 2522 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 20 Mar 26: 59 · 3 Apr 26: 65 · 28 Apr 26: 70 · 20 May 26: 56 · 10 Jun 26: 56 · 22 Aug 26: 41
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Amanda Perrett · 250 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026
In fields of 12-154/3810.5%1.132/1612.5%1.08
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆5/697.2%0.953/2910.3%1.05
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 4 of 6 reverse in 2026
Over 7-8f trips ⇆11/9811.2%1.071/392.6%0.82
In Class 4-5 company11/1238.9%0.942/424.8%0.81
On the all-weather ⇆9/7512.0%1.112/355.7%0.86
Changing jockey from the last run ✦9/1018.9%0.983/565.4%0.87
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆8/829.8%1.093/417.3%0.94
Money drifting against this runner today ⇆4/805.0%1.010/250.0%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample · the book's thin gate)1/333.3%1.061/250.0%1.06
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 378d ago · 7f · Class 4) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Jack Dace · last 14 days: 2/8 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.35 (n62, raw 2.23) · with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n34, raw 1.42)
ConsensusFIG 1READ 1VAL 3POW 1MKT 63 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · UPGRADE → note today
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path8.412.5 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 106.3% v course avg 103.5% (+2.8) · top speed 40.6mph v 39.1 (+1.5)
Course form1 career win at this track
Receiptslast read Lingfield Park 22 Aug 26: figure ≈ · pace ✓ · energy ✓ · connections ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields4th of 13
+0.26 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 13
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power1st of 13
81pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 106.3% is vs its own average · +5.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.20× chance (7,188 runs)
Stride length12th of 13
6.92 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.25 m) · −0.30 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance on all-weather (3,919 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Aug 26Lingfield1mStd53rd7941587373.5True41.9-0.05112.7+0.11
10 Jun 26Kempton Park1mSlow54th7356607470True38.3+0.38105.6+0.26
20 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow54th8056697572True39.5+0.84104.3+0.62
28 Apr 26Yarmouth7fGood34th7770807680True42.2-0.09100.6+0.18
3 Apr 26Lingfield7fStd44th7865657772.5True41.0+0.48105.7+0.18
20 Mar 26Lingfield1mStd46th8059717878Slow early40.7+0.02108.8+0.30
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
22 Aug 264.665.90+27%3rd of 63rd£30.2k£169k18%6.20ran to expectation
10 Jun 265.616.67+19%3rd of 114th£25.5k£174k15%6.80ran to expectation
20 May 264.426.15+39%1st of 124th£27.5k£140k20%6.20underran the market
28 Apr 2610.9822.89+108%6th of 74th£8.4k£171k5%32.00ran to expectation
3 Apr 268.117.40−9%3rd of 124th£34.1k£239k14%2.02ran to expectation
20 Mar 267.7710.00+29%5th of 106th£16.0k£199k8%7.20ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 1 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
22 Aug 26 finished strongly, never nearer (better than result)  ·  10 Jun 26 kept on, late headway  ·  20 May 26 slow away, kept on  ·  28 Apr 26 kept on  ·  3 Apr 26 finished strongly  ·  20 Mar 26 weakened
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.39very slow2f+0.40very slow3f+0.39very slow4f+0.34par5f+0.37very fast6f+0.42very fast7f+0.45very fast1m+0.25very fast
Timed runs 20 Mar 26 to 22 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
ARCTICIAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
20 Mar 26 · 1m · Std — finished 6th vs 3rd, 1.85L behind · OR 78 v 78 · race median 78 (today 72)
FREDA (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 May 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 4th vs 5th, 0.75L ahead · OR 75 v 72 · race median 72 (today 72)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+0.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HAPPY BANNER (IRE) (read through BUBBLES WONKY, SPIRIT OF LEROS, MAXIMISING, EAZY ON THE EYE) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through HAVANA TOUCH, BOLD SUITOR, DANDY KHAN, BELLA BISBEE) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) (read through BILLY MILL, VALENTINE BOY, FINAL NIGHT, RADIANT BEAUTY) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs LONGLAI (FR) (read through BRAVO ZULU, NOBLE GUEST, CAVOLO NERO) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
AW-PROVEN — 3/14 on the all-weather2lb below its last winning mark (72 today vs 74)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.23x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)A course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Mid — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“waited with, shaken up 2f out, not quicken, progress well inside final 1f, took fourth post, more to give”
#2 POTOMAC RIVER MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 70 · FHM 69 AT● -1 · Jack Mitchell / T. J. Kent
MARKET backed 6.8 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
69SPEED FIGURE · #3 OF 14 READ
7.50
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 13% chance
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pt off the top, flagged on our watch list; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 78
Speed Figure (FSF)
65 latest (20 Aug 26) · best 69 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
70 · no win on record
Record at today's distance · 1m
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: held-up (one-paced) — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.34% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #9 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 78 (355d ago · 7f14y · Class 5) — 7pts short of the projected 85. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (47% won without).
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 1 run, 1 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
never raced at Kempton Park
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
T. J. Kenthere 5/22 · 23% · A/E 1.71Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
★ ON THE WATCH LISTNewmarket 15:10, 20 Aug 26 · 3rd at BSP 8.07 · the debrief · back-filled case
Lost ground at the start (7th of 7 away, 3.8s to 20 mph) and still finished its race. Ran to 78, 8 above its three-run mean of 70 — a step forward on its own recent form. Ran against the day's draw pattern (DRAW: 3 of 4 winners from MIDDLE) — drawn 1 of 7, the low third.
EXPECTED · first three next time in Class 5 or lower within 60 days
Class move
Last time: 3rd in a Class 5 0-75 handicap off 70 (Newmarket, 20 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 70 is 5 lb under the 75 ceiling. Same band as last time.
Course scale · class context
drops 13 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → KEMPTON PARK 17th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb below today's median (OR 70 v field 72) · a near-level field move (+0lb) on last time (NEWMARKET · 20 Aug 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
3rdC5 · 1mrated 784thC5 · 7frated 766thC5 · 7frated 597thC4 · 7frated 756thC4 · 7frated 26
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for POTOMAC RIVERneeds 85–88best 7830 Jul 25 · TFR 64 · 7f · Good to Firm · C416 Aug 25 · TFR 71 · 7f · Firm · C519 Sep 25 · TFR 78 · 7f14y · Slow · C513 May 26 · TFR 26 · 7f · Good to Soft · C419 Jun 26 · TFR 75 · 7f · Good · C49 Jul 26 · TFR 59 · 7f · Good to Firm · C57 Aug 26 · TFR 76 · 7f · Good · C520 Aug 26 · TFR 78 · 1m · Good to Firm · C530 Jul 2520 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 19 Sep 25: 50 · 13 May 26: 47 · 19 Jun 26: 63 · 9 Jul 26: 57 · 7 Aug 26: 69 · 20 Aug 26: 65
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
T. J. Kent · 231 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Signature angle: after a slow start last time, without a recent yard winner, changing jockey from the last run, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 5 reverse in 2026
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆7/6111.5%1.006/2722.2%1.18
Changing jockey from the last run ✦18/11216.1%1.168/4219.0%1.20
Coming back after 15 to 45 days21/9821.4%1.385/2917.2%1.12
In Class 4-5 company23/11919.3%1.306/4214.3%1.09
On the all-weather20/9022.2%1.342/1513.3%1.03
Too few runners to read reliably
At Kempton Park ⇆ (small sample · the book's thin gate)5/1926.3%1.180/30.0%0.97
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 78 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 355d ago · 7f14y · Class 5) is 7pts short of the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Jack Mitchell · last 14 days: 3/35 · at Kempton Park: A/E 0.91 (n263, raw 0.89) · with this yard: A/E 0.97 (n3, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 2READ 2VAL 1POW 9MKT 14 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readFADE — last run result flattered by how the race unfolded on a pace-adjusted sectional read · SURGE faded → fade today
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 8 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path6.65.2 (09:06→18:00, backed, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 100.3% v course avg 103.5% (−3.1) · top speed 40.5mph v 39.1 (+1.4)
Receiptslast read Haydock Park 7 Aug 26: figure ✗ · connections ✗ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields5th of 13
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 13
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power9th of 13
54pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.3% is vs its own average · −0.6 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.03× chance (10,785 runs)
Stride length5th of 13
7.44 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (+0.27 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.22 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Aug 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm53rd7865737072True39.7+0.1197.4+1.28
7 Aug 26Haydock Park7fGood54th7669717171True40.7+0.65107.7+0.12
9 Jul 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Frm56th5957587572.5True43.0-0.27102.0+0.10
19 Jun 26Newmarket7fGood47th7563737676.5True40.5+0.2398.5+0.00
13 May 26Yarmouth7fGd/Sft46th2647537773Fast early39.8+0.3387.1+0.00
19 Sep 25Newcastle7f14ySlow53rd7850———Slow early39.4+0.17109.3+0.30
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
20 Aug 266.758.07+20%4th of 73rd£24.6k£280k9%4.20ran to expectation
7 Aug 2617.1929.21+70%8th of 114th£7.5k£255k3%10.00outran the market
9 Jul 267.5710.78+42%5th of 66th£18.2k£194k9%10.50ran to expectation
19 Jun 269.7312.55+29%8th of 107th£23.1k£156k15%—ran to expectation
13 May 2612.9814.00+8%5th of 76th£13.7k£284k5%10.00ran to expectation
19 Sep 259.296.34−32%4th of 63rd£18.7k£219k9%46.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 1 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
20 Aug 26 slow away, kept on  ·  7 Aug 26 finished strongly, late headway  ·  9 Jul 26 weakened  ·  19 Jun 26 weakened  ·  13 May 26 weakened, outpaced  ·  19 Sep 25 checked in running, finished strongly
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.96slow2f+0.73fast3f+0.74fast4f+0.66par5f+0.62par6f+0.62par7f+0.42slow1m+0.40slow
Timed runs 19 Sep 25 to 20 Aug 26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs LONGLAI (FR) (read through DAPPER GUEST, NOBLE GUEST, BRAVO ZULU, PHYSIQUE) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs GUNFIGHTER (IRE) (read through ANTHROPOLOGIST, NOBLE GUEST, DASHING DICK) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs ARCTICIAN (IRE) (read through DAPPER GUEST, BRAVO ZULU, JERSEY MAVERICK, STENMARK) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HERCULEUS (read through DAPPER GUEST, GALLANT) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
Rated #3 in this field (78.0)Only 1 run at this distanceLost roughly 5.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“steadied start, rear, effort 2f out, plodded on”
#3 HERCULEUS PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 73 · FHM 64 A● -9 · Lewis Edmunds / William Muir & Chris Grassick
MARKET backed 14.5 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
76.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
61SPEED FIGURE · #13 OF 14 READ
16.82
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 6% chance
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 3pts off the top, early sectional positions fit the dominant style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 87
Speed Figure (FSF)
61 latest (19 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance · 1m
2 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.74)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent and weakens — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Prominent)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 93.53% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #12 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 87 (377d ago · 1m · Class 4) — 2pts ABOVE the projected 85. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it at some point.
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 at Kempton Park
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
William Muir & Chris Grassickhere 10/89 · 11% · A/E 1.28Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 6th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 77 (Kempton Park, 19 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 73 is 2 lb under the 75 ceiling. A drop of 10 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Sits 1lb above today's median (OR 73 v field 72) · a field 9lb weaker than last time (median 81 then) (KEMPTON PARK · 19 Aug 26) · on our own book 0lb above the field (FHM 64 v field FHM median 64)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
6thC4 · 1mrated 7613thC4 · 7frated 395thC4 · 1mrated 779thC3 · 1mrated 6310thC3 · 1mrated 16
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HERCULEUSbest 87needs 85–8828 Apr 25 · TFR 68 · 1m31y · Good to Firm · C520 May 25 · TFR 81 · 1m75y · Good · C520 Jun 25 · TFR 77 · 1m · Good to Firm · C428 Aug 25 · TFR 87 · 1m · Good to Firm · C420 Sep 25 · TFR 22 · 1m · Soft · C422 Oct 25 · TFR 16 · 1m · Standard · C31 May 26 · TFR 63 · 1m · Good to Firm · C31 Jun 26 · TFR 77 · 1m · Firm · C42 Jul 26 · TFR 39 · 7f · Good to Firm · C419 Aug 26 · TFR 76 · 1m · Slow · C428 Apr 2519 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 20 Sep 25: 32 · 22 Oct 25: 48 · 1 May 26: 55 · 1 Jun 26: 55 · 2 Jul 26: 48 · 19 Aug 26: 61
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Muir & Chris Grassick · 609 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 3 reverse in 2026
In fields of 12-15 ⇆5/865.8%0.913/358.6%1.10
On the all-weather ✦24/17813.5%1.138/6212.9%1.08
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆25/2609.6%0.9311/9411.7%1.09
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
In Class 4-5 company ⇆31/25112.4%1.203/654.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark ⇆ (small sample · the book's thin gate)1/911.1%1.031/714.3%0.97
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 377d ago · 1m · Class 4) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 3/37 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.32 (n188, raw 1.49) · with this yard: A/E 1.01 (n449, raw 1.01)
ConsensusFIG 3READ 3VAL 2POW 12MKT 51 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path14.510 (09:06→18:00, backed, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 93.5% v course avg 103.5% (−9.9) · top speed 39.6mph v 39.1 (+0.4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields11th of 13
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 13
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power12th of 13
46pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 93.5% is vs its own average · −7.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.80× chance (7,046 runs)
Stride length6th of 13
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (+0.13 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.08 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Aug 26Kempton Park1mSlow46th7661687781—38.6-0.47101.7+0.20
2 Jul 26Newbury7fGd/Frm413th3948518079True40.1-0.2092.5+0.26
1 Jun 26Newbury1mFirm45th7755678279.5True40.5-0.09100.8+0.08
1 May 26Ascot1mGd/Frm39th6355538487True39.6+0.2592.8+0.00
22 Oct 25Kempton Park1mStd310th1648578589True39.8-0.1189.7+0.12
20 Sep 25Newbury1mSoft413th2232508582Fast early38.8+0.1483.9+0.36
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
19 Aug 2648.5655.99+15%8th of 96th£2.8k£158k2%20.00ran to expectation
2 Jul 2614.3414.50+1%6th of 1413th£8.1k£145k6%15.00underran the market
1 Jun 2616.7212.55−25%5th of 125th£16.3k£274k6%5.30ran to expectation
1 May 2619.4835.98+85%9th of 119th£7.8k£215k4%18.50ran to expectation
22 Oct 2523.0823.00−0%6th of 1110th£6.9k£243k3%13.00underran the market
20 Sep 253.886.00+55%2nd of 1513th£64.6k£259k25%5.00underran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
19 Aug 26 outpaced then kept on (trip signal)  ·  2 Jul 26 raced too keenly, weakened  ·  1 Jun 26 weakened, outpaced  ·  1 May 26 weakened  ·  22 Oct 25 weakened  ·  20 Sep 25 weakened
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.32 2f+0.47 3f+0.62 4f+0.55 5f+0.53 6f+0.37 7f+0.32 1m+0.80 
Timed runs 20 Sep 25 to 19 Aug 26.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs LONGLAI (FR) (read through COGITATE, DAPPER GUEST, HUSCAL, BEST RATE) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs POTOMAC RIVER (read through DAPPER GUEST, GALLANT) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through EPICTETUS, BEST RATE, BLUE RC, COMMANDER OF LIFE) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs ARCTICIAN (IRE) (read through COGITATE, EPICTETUS, DAPPER GUEST, NORTH VIEW) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
4lb below its last winning mark (73 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.74)Jockey goes well at this track (1.49x market expectation)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, MEDIUM confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)Runs Prominent — the style with the largest share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix), and its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened”
#4 FREDA (IRE) MID
DRAW 14 · OR 72 · FHM 68 B● -4 · Paddy Bradley / Pat Phelan
MARKET backed 44 → 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
66SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 14 READ
9.57
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 10% chance
MED DATA · 5 runs
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 4pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 76
Speed Figure (FSF)
55 latest (20 May 26) · best 66 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
72 · no win on record
Record at today's distance · 1m
1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (4.45)
Days since last run
112
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.34% (sustains — still going at the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #3 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (stride pattern for this track shape)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 76 (156d ago · 1m · Class 4) — 9pts short of the projected 85. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (47% won without).
Record on today’s going
1 win from 5 runs, 3 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
1 win from 3 runs, 1 top-3 at Kempton Park
1 win from 3 runs, 1 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Pat Phelanhere 3/73 · 4% · A/E 0.83Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 5th in a Class 5 0-75 handicap off 72 (Kempton Park, 20 May 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 72 is 3 lb under the 75 ceiling. Same band as last time.
Field strength · class context
Sits level with today's median (OR 72 v field 72) · a near-level field move (+0lb) on last time (KEMPTON PARK · 20 May 26) · on our own book 4lb above the field (FHM 68 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
5thC5 · 1mrated 751stC4 · 1mrated 766thC4 · 1mrated 693rdC4 · 7frated 682ndC3 · 1mrated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FREDA (IRE)needs 85–88best 767 Jan 26 · TFR 75 · 1m · Slow · C310 Feb 26 · TFR 68 · 7f · Slow · C425 Mar 26 · TFR 69 · 1m · Slow · C46 Apr 26 · TFR 76 · 1m · Slow · C420 May 26 · TFR 75 · 1m · Slow · C57 Jan 2620 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 5 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 7 Jan 26: 63 · 10 Feb 26: 64 · 25 Mar 26: 66 · 6 Apr 26: 63 · 20 May 26: 55
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Pat Phelan · 259 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 3 of 3 reverse in 2026
Coming back after 91 to 180 days ⇆0/140.0%0.871/812.5%1.06
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆2/593.4%0.902/1513.3%1.06
In fields of 12-15 ⇆3/565.4%0.951/128.3%1.03
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 2 hold in both windows
At Kempton Park2/573.5%0.981/166.2%0.97
On the all-weather10/1357.4%0.994/488.3%0.94
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 76 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 156d ago · 1m · Class 4) is 9pts short of the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Paddy Bradley · last 14 days: 0/19 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.10 (n246, raw 1.17) · with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n205, raw 0.91)
ConsensusFIG 4READ 4VAL 4POW 3MKT 110 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 4 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path3232 (09:06→18:00, steady, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 104.3% v course avg 103.5% (+0.9) · top speed 39.9mph v 39.1 (+0.8)
Course form1 career win at this track
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields1st of 13
+0.52 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 13
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power3rd of 13
72pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 104.3% is vs its own average · +3.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.20× chance (7,188 runs)
Stride length11th of 13
6.95 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.22 m) · −0.27 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance on all-weather (3,919 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow55th7555687272True39.7+1.11104.3+0.33
6 Apr 26Kempton Park1mSlow41st7663———True38.9+0.47106.0+0.20
25 Mar 26Kempton Park1mSlow46th6966———True39.0+0.32101.2+0.13
10 Feb 26Lingfield7fSlow43rd6864———True41.2+0.08103.8+0.00
7 Jan 26Lingfield1mSlow32nd7563———True40.8+0.63106.4+0.00
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
20 May 2613.2518.75+41%6th of 125th£10.3k£140k7%2.00ran to expectation
6 Apr 2618.3941.81+127%7th of 101st£6.9k£197k3%38.00outran the market
25 Mar 268.948.00−10%4th of 116th£27.5k£296k9%6.00ran to expectation
10 Feb 263.143.85+23%3rd of 33rd£77.2k£240k32%1.81beaten from a winning position
7 Jan 2673.1344.02−40%5th of 82nd£5.9k£345k2%2.60outran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
20 May 26 late headway, no extra ✓ in-play money believed it  ·  6 Apr 26 clean  ·  25 Mar 26 weakened  ·  10 Feb 26 weakened, outpaced  ·  7 Jan 26 had to switch ✓ in-play money believed it
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.60par2f+0.55slow3f+0.45par4f+0.49slow5f+0.53par6f+0.30fast7f+0.12fast1m+0.35slow
Timed runs 7 Jan 26 to 20 May 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
LADY MANZOR · 1 meeting≈ 2.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 May 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 5th vs 4th, 0.75L behind · OR 72 v 75 · race median 72 (today 72)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Mid — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, every chance well inside final 1f, no extra late on”
#5 HAPPY BANNER (IRE) MID
DRAW 8 · OR 73 · FHM 68 A● -5 stale · Tom Marquand / Ed Walker
MARKET backed 10 → 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
74 FORMLAB FIGURE
70SPEED FIGURE · =1 OF 14 READ
8.17
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 12% chance
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, prominent in the betting; solid late gains (5th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
74 · ranked #5 here · career best 83
Speed Figure (FSF)
64 latest (29 Aug 26) · best 70 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
73 · no win on record
Record at today's distance · 1m
0 wins from 10 tries
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.85% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #5 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
suits today's track (stride pattern for this track shape)
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 83 (62d ago · 1m113y · Class 5) — within 2pts of the projected 85. 30% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 90 days.
Record on today’s going
1 win from 5 runs, 3 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
1 win from 2 runs, 1 top-3 at Kempton Park
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Ed Walkerhere 20/142 · 14% · A/E 1.26Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 7th in a Class 4 0-80 handicap off 75 (Windsor, 29 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 73 is 2 lb under the 75 ceiling. A drop of 5 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Sits 1lb above today's median (OR 73 v field 72) · a field 4lb weaker than last time (median 76 then) (WINDSOR · 29 Aug 26) · on our own book 4lb above the field (FHM 68 v field FHM median 64)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap today — cheekpieces, tongue strap worn before on the peak runs printed in the Optimal Conditions Profile (last 24 months), so not all of it is first-time; only the combination is new
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
7thC4 · 1m31yrated 604thC4 · 1mrated 792ndC5 · 1m113yrated 832ndC5 · 1m14yrated 783rdC4 · 1mrated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HAPPY BANNER (IRE)needs 85–88best 8317 Apr 25 · TFR 75 · 1m · Good · C417 May 25 · TFR 77 · 1m · Firm · C320 Jun 25 · TFR 80 · 1m2f · Firm · C4 · off-trip7 Aug 25 · TFR 64 · 7f · Good · C41 Oct 25 · TFR 66 · 7f · Standard · C514 Oct 25 · TFR 73 · 1m · Standard · C46 Nov 25 · TFR 77 · 1m · Slow · C427 Apr 26 · TFR 77 · 1m · Good to Firm · C423 May 26 · TFR 78 · 1m · Good · C427 Jun 26 · TFR 78 · 1m14y · Good to Firm · C59 Jul 26 · TFR 83 · 1m113y · Good to Firm · C529 Jul 26 · TFR 79 · 1m · Good to Firm · C429 Aug 26 · TFR 60 · 1m31y · Soft · C417 Apr 2529 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 27 Apr 26: 64 · 23 May 26: 63 · 27 Jun 26: 54 · 9 Jul 26: 70 · 29 Jul 26: 57 · 29 Aug 26: 64
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1385 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 3 hold in both windows
At Kempton Park14/11012.7%1.086/2821.4%1.20
Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/5714.0%1.036/2128.6%1.12
Over 7-8f trips ✦65/49513.1%1.0238/21617.6%1.14
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
In fields of 12-15 ⇆24/18712.8%1.225/697.2%0.88
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 83 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 62d ago · 1m113y · Class 5) is 2pts short of the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 10/56 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.12 (n257, raw 1.15) · with this yard: A/E 1.18 (n244, raw 1.24)
ConsensusFIG 5READ 5VAL 5POW 5MKT 30 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~6% (model 6% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path108.8 (09:06→18:00, backed, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 102.8% v course avg 103.5% (−0.6) · top speed 39.6mph v 39.1 (+0.5)
Course form1 career win at this track
Receiptslast read Windsor 29 Aug 26: figure ≈ · connections ✗ · class ✗ · pace ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields10th of 13
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 13
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power5th of 13
67pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 102.8% is vs its own average · +1.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.08× chance (7,470 runs)
Stride length2nd of 13
7.55 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (+0.38 m) · +0.33 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.25× chance on all-weather (3,900 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Aug 26Windsor1m31ySoft47th6064647576True38.0-0.58101.4—
29 Jul 26Sandown Park1mGd/Frm44th7957687681True37.5+0.00104.2+0.29
9 Jul 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Frm52nd8370797368.5True42.3+0.36108.1+0.39
27 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGd/Frm52nd7854677370True41.7-0.18101.0+0.00
23 May 26Salisbury1mGood43rd7863777376—37.8-0.0796.9+0.06
27 Apr 26Bath1mGd/Frm43rd7764767376.5Slow early40.2+0.03105.5+0.04
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
29 Aug 268.1610.81+33%5th of 87th£10.0k£141k7%11.00ran to expectation
29 Jul 264.614.00−13%3rd of 54th£27.2k£185k15%4.00ran to expectation
9 Jul 266.164.76−23%2nd of 82nd£38.8k£230k17%5.00ran to expectation
27 Jun 263.202.70−16%1st of 72nd£91.6k£198k46%3.05ran to expectation
23 May 267.166.60−8%3rd of 113rd£24.9k£165k15%1.10beaten from a winning position
27 Apr 265.676.07+7%2nd of 63rd£33.7k£218k15%4.70ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
29 Aug 26 weakened  ·  29 Jul 26 outpaced  ·  9 Jul 26 hung under pressure, kept on  ·  27 Jun 26 hung under pressure  ·  23 May 26 had to switch, late headway, no extra ✓ in-play money believed it  ·  27 Apr 26 outpaced
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.36par2f+0.47par3f+0.53par4f+0.28par5f+0.51slow6f+0.73slow7f+0.99slow1m+2.02very slow
Timed runs 27 Apr 26 to 29 Aug 26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
ARCTICIAN (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses
14 Oct 25 · 1m · Std — finished 6th vs 9th, 4L ahead · OR 72 v 75 · race median 76 (today 72)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LADY MANZOR (read through BUBBLES WONKY, SPIRIT OF LEROS, MAXIMISING, EAZY ON THE EYE) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SAN JUANITO (read through FARASI LANE, TRANSPARENT) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs GUNFIGHTER (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, DARVEL, GENNADIUS, TENNESSEE GOLD) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs ASTEVERDI (read through PORT ERIN, WINSTON'S WARRIOR, SILCA BAY, CRISTO) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayStable cold this week — 1 wins from 18 runsRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“off pace, under pressure 2f out, never on terms”
#6 GUNFIGHTER (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 68 · FHM 66 A● -2 · David Egan / John Butler
MARKET backed 11 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 9+ / 0−
73.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
66SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 14 READ
9.76
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 10% chance
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 5.7pts off the top, prominent in the betting; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
73.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 87
Speed Figure (FSF)
66 latest (20 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance · 1m
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.38% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #7 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
suits today's track (stride pattern for this track shape)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 77 (66d ago · 7f14y · Class 5) — 8pts short of the projected 85. 70% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (30% won without).
Record on today’s going
2 wins from 8 runs, 4 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
0 wins from 2 runs, 1 top-3 at Kempton Park
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
John Butlerhere 31/235 · 13% · A/E 1.32Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
★ ON THE WATCH LISTLingfield Park 15:55, 20 Aug 26 · 5th at BSP 6.41 · the debrief · back-filled case
Lost ground at the start (10th of 11 away, 2.9s to 20 mph) and still finished its race. A new best FormLab Speed Figure (60 → 66). Ran 14.1 above our handicap mark in defeat — the typical winning improvement, without the win.
EXPECTED · first three next time in Class 5 or lower within 60 days, even off a higher mark
Class move
Last time: 5th in a Class 5 0-70 handicap off 69 (Lingfield Park, 20 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 68 is 7 lb under the 75 ceiling. A rise of 5 lb in band ceiling.
Course scale · class context
steps up 6 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → KEMPTON PARK 17th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Sits 4lb below today's median (OR 68 v field 72) · a field 3lb stronger than last time (median 69 then) (LINGFIELD PARK · 20 Aug 26) · on our own book 2lb above the field (FHM 66 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
5thC5 · 7frated 727thC5 · 7f36yrated 711stC5 · 7f14yrated 779thC5 · 1mrated 527thC5 · 1mrated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GUNFIGHTER (IRE)best 87needs 85–8824 Mar 25 · TFR 60 · 6f20y · Slow · C48 Jun 25 · TFR 71 · 6f · Good to Soft · C3 · off-trip16 Jun 25 · TFR 50 · 6f11y · Good to Firm · C34 Jul 25 · TFR 44 · 1m · Good to Firm · C416 Jul 25 · TFR 75 · 7f · Good to Firm · C425 Jul 25 · TFR 51 · 7f · Good · C48 Aug 25 · TFR 8 · 6f · Good to Firm · C4 · off-trip27 May 26 · TFR 65 · 1m · Slow · C59 Jun 26 · TFR 52 · 1m · Good · C55 Jul 26 · TFR 77 · 7f14y · Standard · C531 Jul 26 · TFR 71 · 7f36y · Slow · C520 Aug 26 · TFR 72 · 7f · Standard · C524 Mar 2520 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 8 Aug 25: 40 · 27 May 26: 56 · 9 Jun 26: 54 · 5 Jul 26: 60 · 31 Jul 26: 56 · 20 Aug 26: 66
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 1076 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 7 of 9 reverse in 2026
At Kempton Park ⇆15/1828.2%0.9815/4533.3%1.46
On the all-weather ⇆52/5888.8%0.8941/16325.2%1.46
At this time of year (Q3) ✦19/1969.7%1.0320/8922.5%1.26
Above their last winning mark ⇆19/13214.4%0.9725/10823.1%1.27
In fields of 12-15 ✦19/2288.3%1.098/6512.3%1.15
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆48/5299.1%0.9739/19520.0%1.31
In Class 4-5 company ⇆19/3745.1%0.8036/17320.8%1.27
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆33/4287.7%0.8030/16518.2%1.21
Over 7-8f trips ⇆28/3847.3%0.8819/11516.5%1.11
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 77 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 66d ago · 7f14y · Class 5) is 8pts short of the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 14/54 · at Kempton Park: A/E 0.86 (n192, raw 0.8) · with this yard: A/E 1.21 (n109, raw 1.4)
ConsensusFIG 6READ 7VAL 7POW 7MKT 21 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~17% (model 20% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path116.2 (09:06→18:00, backed, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 98.4% v course avg 103.5% (−5.1) · top speed 39.8mph v 39.1 (+0.7)
Receiptslast read Lingfield Park 20 Aug 26: figure ✗ · connections ✗ · energy ✓ · pace ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields9th of 13
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 13
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power7th of 13
62pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.4% is vs its own average · −2.5 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.80× chance (7,046 runs)
Stride length1st of 13
7.59 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (+0.42 m) · +0.37 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.25× chance on all-weather (3,900 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Aug 26Lingfield7fStd55th7266726969True42.1+0.77101.9+0.25
31 Jul 26Wolverhampton7f36ySlow57th7156566968True38.1-0.54103.6+0.05
5 Jul 26Southwell7f14yStd51st7760676667.5True39.0+0.09103.5+0.29
9 Jun 26Brighton1mGood59th5254496868True41.4+0.0092.1+0.42
27 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow57th6556517067.5True38.6-0.3499.5+0.31
8 Aug 25Newmarket6fGd/Frm413th840517277Fast early42.2-0.3189.8+0.25
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
20 Aug 265.666.41+13%3rd of 115th£29.7k£146k20%3.40ran to expectation
31 Jul 264.424.48+1%1st of 107th£52.1k£156k33%3.90well backed, flopped — no pace excuse on the clock
5 Jul 268.226.20−25%3rd of 101st£25.5k£178k14%7.60ran to expectation
9 Jun 2615.4413.00−16%7th of 129th£8.7k£133k7%13.00ran to expectation
27 May 2620.5629.57+44%10th of 147th£3.1k£116k3%19.00outran the market
8 Aug 2549.5765.00+31%13th of 1413th£3.4k£236k1%8.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 1 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
20 Aug 26 kept on, no extra  ·  31 Jul 26 weakened  ·  5 Jul 26 had to switch, kept on, late headway  ·  9 Jun 26 weakened  ·  27 May 26 finished strongly, late headway  ·  8 Aug 25 slow away, weakened ✓ in-play money believed it
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.04fast2fledfast3fledpar4fledpar5fledpar6f+0.02slow7f+0.42slow
Timed runs 8 Aug 25 to 20 Aug 26.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
27 May 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 7th vs 1st, 6.05L behind · OR 70 v 66 · race median 67.5 (today 72)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-3.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs POTOMAC RIVER (read through ANTHROPOLOGIST, NOBLE GUEST, DASHING DICK) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs LONGLAI (FR) (read through TENNESSEE GOLD, NOBLE GUEST, WODAO) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, BOLD SUITOR, DARVEL, BLUE COLLAR LAD) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HAPPY BANNER (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, DARVEL, GENNADIUS, TENNESSEE GOLD) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“led, pushed along early in straight, headed over 1f out, weakened final 100 yds”
#7 ASTEVERDI MID
DRAW 5 · OR 75 · FHM 60 B● -15 · Rossa Ryan / James Owen
MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
72.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
66SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 14 READ
14.87
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 7% chance
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 6.7pts off the top, early sectional positions fit the dominant style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
72.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 89
Speed Figure (FSF)
58 latest (27 Jul 26) · best 66 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance · 1m
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.32)
Days since last run
44
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.64% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #10 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 87 (430d ago · 1m · Class 3) — 2pts ABOVE the projected 85. 59% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 12 months.
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
never raced at Kempton Park
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
James Owenhere 19/111 · 17% · A/E 1.40Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 8th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 76 (Southwell, 27 Jul 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 75 is the top of the band. A drop of 10 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (SOUTHWELL 22nd → KEMPTON PARK 17th) - the track is stronger; the race itself (class and band) is weaker, see the class move above.
Field strength · class context
Sits 3lb above today's median (OR 75 v field 72) · a field 4lb weaker than last time (median 76 then) (SOUTHWELL · 27 Jul 26) · on our own book 4lb below the field (FHM 60 v field FHM median 64)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
8thC4 · 7f14yrated 603rdC4 · 1mrated 847thC4 · 1m75yrated 733rdC4 · 1mrated 8214thC4 · 1m2f50yrated 29
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ASTEVERDIbest 89needs 85–886 Jul 25 · TFR 87 · 1m · Good to Soft · C326 Jul 25 · TFR 85 · 1m2f70y · Good to Firm · C4 · off-trip6 Sep 25 · TFR 85 · 1m · Good · C220 Sep 25 · TFR 59 · 1m2f70y · Heavy · C4 · off-trip8 Oct 25 · TFR 29 · 1m2f50y · Soft · C4 · off-trip12 Apr 26 · TFR 82 · 1m · Good · C49 May 26 · TFR 73 · 1m75y · Good · C45 Jun 26 · TFR 84 · 1m · Good to Soft · C427 Jul 26 · TFR 60 · 7f14y · Standard · C46 Jul 2527 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 20 Sep 25: 33 · 8 Oct 25: 47 · 12 Apr 26: 65 · 9 May 26: 63 · 5 Jun 26: 66 · 27 Jul 26: 58
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1795 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground, on handicap debut, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows
At Kempton Park ✦10/6615.2%1.129/4520.0%1.20
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
Below their last winning mark ⇆13/5623.2%1.257/6510.8%0.82
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 430d ago · 1m · Class 3) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 15/69 · at Kempton Park: A/E 0.96 (n400, raw 0.95) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n23, raw 1.19)
ConsensusFIG 7READ 8VAL 8POW 10MKT 40 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path9.810.5 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 97.6% v course avg 103.5% (−5.8) · top speed 38.8mph v 39.1 (−0.4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields7th of 13
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 13
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power10th of 13
52pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 97.6% is vs its own average · −3.3 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.80× chance (7,046 runs)
Stride length7th of 13
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.06 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.11 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jul 26Southwell7f14yStd48th6058607676Fast early38.9-0.30100.5+0.16
5 Jun 26Goodwood1mGd/Sft43rd8466767675True38.0+0.05100.1+0.16
9 May 26Nottingham1m75yGood47th7363787878True39.1+0.0996.2+0.19
12 Apr 26Musselburgh1mGood43rd8265757883True39.1+0.14101.7+0.11
8 Oct 25Nottingham1m2f50ySoft414th2947518078.5True37.6+0.3392.8+0.25
20 Sep 25Chester1m2f70yHeavy45th5933428174True34.7-0.1494.5+0.27
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
27 Jul 2615.6416.50+5%6th of 128th£9.8k£316k3%16.00ran to expectation
5 Jun 264.233.89−8%1st of 93rd£21.4k£88k24%1.80beaten from a winning position
9 May 268.646.08−30%3rd of 117th£24.7k£187k13%50.00underran the market
12 Apr 269.566.20−35%2nd of 113rd£21.0k£159k13%5.00ran to expectation
8 Oct 2522.5718.49−18%9th of 1414th£6.2k£141k4%19.00underran the market
20 Sep 254.957.00+42%4th of 65th£38.3k£268k14%4.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
27 Jul 26 clean  ·  5 Jun 26 kept on, late headway  ·  9 May 26 never on terms  ·  12 Apr 26 finished strongly  ·  8 Oct 25 clean  ·  20 Sep 25 weakened
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.18par2f+0.20fast3f+0.60slow4f+0.53slow5f+0.94slow6f+0.91slow7f+1.45very slow
Timed runs 20 Sep 25 to 27 Jul 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER) (read through KING AL, JUPITER AMMON) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through PETER THE WOLF, GEO, CONDOTTI, NARMAR) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HAPPY BANNER (IRE) (read through PORT ERIN, WINSTON'S WARRIOR, SILCA BAY, CRISTO) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SAN JUANITO (read through CHALK MOUNTAIN, CITY OF KINGS, YOUARENOTFORGIVEN) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
5lb below its last winning mark (75 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“chased leaders, lost place 3f out, dropped away gradually straight”
#8 ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER) MID
DRAW 13 · OR 75 · 9-9 · −5lb claim = 9-4 carried · FHM 64 BT● -11 · Millie Wonnacott / Harry Charlton
MARKET backed 30 → 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
67SPEED FIGURE · #5 OF 14 READ
15.03
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 7% chance
MED DATA · 4 runs
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 80
Speed Figure (FSF)
67 latest (18 Apr 26)
Official mark (OR)
75 · no win on record
Record at today's distance · 1m
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
144
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.28% (sustains — still going at the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #4 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 80 (525d ago · 1m3f23y · Class 4) — 5pts short of the projected 85. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (47% won without).
Record on today’s going
1 win from 2 runs, 2 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
1 win from 1 run, 1 top-3 at Kempton Park
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Harry Charltonhere 10/99 · 10% · A/E 0.78Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 12th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 77 (Newbury, 18 Apr 26, turf). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 75 is the top of the band. A drop of 10 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Course scale · class context
drops 10 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → KEMPTON PARK 17th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Sits 3lb above today's median (OR 75 v field 72) · a field 10lb weaker than last time (median 81.5 then) (NEWBURY · 18 Apr 26)
Headgear
Hood
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
12thC4 · 1m2frated 722ndC4 · 1m3f23yrated 808thC1 · 1mrated 551stC5 · 7frated 77
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROYALE GOODNIGHT (GER)needs 85–88best 802 Apr 25 · TFR 80 · 1m3f23y · Standard · C4 · off-trip18 Apr 26 · TFR 72 · 1m2f · Good · C4 · off-trip2 Apr 2518 Apr 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 144 days ago
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 4 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 16 Sep 24: 59 · 2 Nov 24: 52 · 2 Apr 25: 43 · 18 Apr 26: 67
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harry Charlton · 672 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 3 reverse in 2026
In fields of 12-1517/13612.5%1.045/2917.2%1.20
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆44/27915.8%0.9019/9619.8%1.12
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆31/21814.2%0.8613/6320.6%1.09
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 3 hold in both windows
On the all-weather ✦29/20414.2%0.895/4211.9%0.86
At Kempton Park8/819.9%0.892/1811.1%0.96
In Class 4-5 company ✦48/33414.4%0.8913/8914.6%0.89
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample · the book's thin gate)2/1910.5%0.920/110.0%0.90
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 80 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 525d ago · 1m3f23y · Class 4) is 5pts short of the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Millie Wonnacott · last 14 days: 0/4 · at Kempton Park: A/E 0.81 (n23, raw 0) · with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n40, raw 0.79)
ConsensusFIG 8READ 9VAL 9POW 4MKT 90 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~14% (model 17% through the measured curve · last 4 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path2225 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 105.3% v course avg 103.5% (+1.8) · top speed 37.0mph v 39.1 (−2.1)
Course & fixturewon at this track in September 2024 — 1 career win at this track
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields8th of 13
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 13
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power4th of 13
68pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 105.3% is vs its own average · +4.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.20× chance (7,188 runs)
Stride length9th of 13
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.09 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.14 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Apr 26Newbury1m2fGood412th7267647781.5True38.9-0.23106.7+0.26
2 Apr 25Southwell1m3f23yStd42nd8043587774Slow early39.3+0.58112.3+0.27
2 Nov 24Newmarket1mHeavy18th5552———Slow early37.0-0.2894.8+0.18
16 Sep 24Kempton Park7fStd51st7759———True—107.4—
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
18 Apr 2652.61120.00+128%11th of 1412th£4.2k£384k1%55.00ran to expectation
2 Apr 253.924.10+5%3rd of 52nd£57.5k£229k25%2.30ran to expectation
2 Nov 2423.4822.39−5%6th of 88th£7.1k£352k2%11.50ran to expectation
16 Sep 2420.6531.42+52%9th of 121st£3.2k£148k2%24.00outran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
18 Apr 26 had to switch, never on terms  ·  2 Apr 25 raced too keenly, no extra  ·  2 Nov 24 weakened  ·  16 Sep 24 finished strongly
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.62par2f+0.70par3f+1.16slow4f+1.06slow5f+1.05slow6f+0.82par7f+0.67slow1m+0.57par1m 1f+0.74fast1m 2f+1.19fast
Timed runs 16 Sep 24 to 18 Apr 26 · last timed run 144 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs ASTEVERDI (read through KING AL, JUPITER AMMON) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
Data gaps · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Mid — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“mid-field, brief effort wide 2f out, no further impression”
#9 RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 12 · OR 70 · FHM 58 A● -12 · Kieren Fox / John Butler
MARKET 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 9+ / 1−
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
66SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 14 READ
16.97
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 6% chance
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 8pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 94
Speed Figure (FSF)
49 latest (16 Jun 26) · best 66 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance · 1m
1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
85
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: held-up closer — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Held up)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.98% (sustains — still going at the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #2 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 77 (105d ago · 1m · Class 5) — 8pts short of the projected 85. 70% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (30% won without).
Record on today’s going
1 win from 19 runs, 6 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
1 win from 15 runs, 6 top-3 at Kempton Park
1 win from 15 runs, 6 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
John Butlerhere 31/235 · 13% · A/E 1.32Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 5th in a Class 5 0-70 handicap off 70 (Wolverhampton, 16 Jun 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 70 is 5 lb under the 75 ceiling. A rise of 5 lb in band ceiling.
Course scale · class context
steps up 15 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → KEMPTON PARK 17th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb below today's median (OR 70 v field 72) · a field 7lb stronger than last time (median 65 then) (WOLVERHAMPTON · 16 Jun 26) · on our own book 6lb below the field (FHM 58 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
5thC5 · 1m142yrated 711stC5 · 1mrated 7711thC5 · 1mrated 596thC5 · 1m1f104yrated 632ndC6 · 1mrated 71
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE)best 94needs 85–887 Apr 25 · TFR 62 · 1m · Standard · C421 May 25 · TFR 51 · 1m · Standard · C524 Nov 25 · TFR 61 · 1m142y · Slow · C517 Dec 25 · TFR 71 · 1m · Standard · C626 Jan 26 · TFR 63 · 1m1f104y · Standard · C518 Mar 26 · TFR 59 · 1m · Slow · C527 May 26 · TFR 77 · 1m · Slow · C516 Jun 26 · TFR 71 · 1m142y · Standard · C57 Apr 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 24 Nov 25: 52 · 17 Dec 25: 66 · 26 Jan 26: 64 · 18 Mar 26: 58 · 27 May 26: 62 · 16 Jun 26: 49
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 1076 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 6 of 9 reverse in 2026
Coming back after 46 to 90 days11/9212.0%1.188/2630.8%1.31
At Kempton Park ⇆15/1828.2%0.9815/4533.3%1.46
On the all-weather ⇆52/5888.8%0.8941/16325.2%1.46
At this time of year (Q3) ✦19/1969.7%1.0320/8922.5%1.26
Above their last winning mark ⇆19/13214.4%0.9725/10823.1%1.27
In fields of 12-15 ✦19/2288.3%1.098/6512.3%1.15
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆48/5299.1%0.9739/19520.0%1.31
In Class 4-5 company ⇆19/3745.1%0.8036/17320.8%1.27
Over 7-8f trips ⇆28/3847.3%0.8819/11516.5%1.11
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
With a runner returning from 60+ days off ⇆7/897.9%1.022/277.4%0.92
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 77 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 105d ago · 1m · Class 5) is 8pts short of the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Kieren Fox · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.06 (n9, raw 2.4) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n1, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 9READ 10VAL 10POW 2MKT 121 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in its favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path3436 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 106.0% v course avg 103.5% (+2.5) · top speed 39.5mph v 39.1 (+0.4)
Course form1 career win at this track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 13
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 13
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power2nd of 13
76pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 106.0% is vs its own average · +5.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.20× chance (7,188 runs)
Stride length13th of 13
6.88 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.29 m) · −0.34 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance on all-weather (3,919 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd55th7149527065True38.2+0.90104.2+0.13
27 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow51st7762696667.5True39.2+0.22102.0+0.48
18 Mar 26Kempton Park1mSlow511th5958556872True40.2+0.26108.7+0.59
26 Jan 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd56th6364647071.5True37.9+0.09104.2+0.08
17 Dec 25Kempton Park1mStd62nd7166566563.5Slow early40.6+0.39110.4+0.00
24 Nov 25Wolverhampton1m142ySlow54th6152496766.5True39.3+0.62106.3+0.31
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
16 Jun 268.028.55+7%4th of 135th£12.4k£123k10%9.00ran to expectation
27 May 2629.4717.00−42%8th of 141st£5.3k£116k5%32.00outran the market
18 Mar 2629.0871.92+147%11th of 1311th£3.8k£244k2%110.00ran to expectation
26 Jan 2619.5232.00+64%7th of 106th£5.3k£241k2%34.00ran to expectation
17 Dec 254.183.17−24%1st of 122nd£126.9k£261k49%1.12beaten from a winning position
24 Nov 256.559.40+44%5th of 84th£19.2k£209k9%13.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
16 Jun 26 never on terms  ·  27 May 26 had to switch  ·  18 Mar 26 checked in running, never on terms  ·  26 Jan 26 kept on  ·  17 Dec 25 hung under pressure ✓ in-play money believed it  ·  24 Nov 25 hung under pressure, kept on, late headway, outpaced then kept on (trip signal)
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.56slow2f+0.83slow3f+0.80par4f+1.20slow5f+1.12fast6f+1.19slow7f+1.06slow1m+0.90par1m 1f+1.43par
Timed runs 24 Nov 25 to 16 Jun 26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
ARCTICIAN (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
21 May 25 · 1m · Std — finished 12th vs 8th, 6.75L behind · OR 68 v 72 · race median 71 (today 72) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
LONGLAI (FR) · 1 meeting · n/a
7 Sep 24 · 1m · Std — finished 7th vs 5th, 0.3L behind · OR 86 v 87 · race median 88 (today 72) · stale — 24m ago, not in the read
GUNFIGHTER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
27 May 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 1st vs 7th, 6.05L ahead · OR 66 v 70 · race median 67.5 (today 72)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+3.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LADY MANZOR (read through BILLY MILL, VALENTINE BOY, FINAL NIGHT, RADIANT BEAUTY) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SAN JUANITO (read through FINAL NIGHT, PENFOLDS GRANGE, BRASIL POWER) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HAPPY BANNER (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, PITNEY, DARVEL, GENNADIUS) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, DARVEL, THE HARE RAIL, SUPER HIT) ≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
4lb above its last winning mark (70 today vs 66)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayStable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.4x market expectation)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 15 here)
LTO comment
“off pace, headway when not clear run over 1f out, bumped inside final 1f, kept on”
#10 LONGLAI (FR) HELD-UP START EXCUSE · VET-REJECTED
DRAW 2 · OR 74 · FHM 67 A● -7 · Benoit de la Sayette / George Baker
MARKET drifting 13 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
69.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
63SPEED FIGURE · =11 OF 14 READ
13.89
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 7% chance
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, proven at the trip; slow away 5 of its last 6 timed runs (0-20mph split).
FormLab Figure
69.3 · ranked #10 here · career best 92
Speed Figure (FSF)
63 latest (12 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance · 1m
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (2.45)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: held-up (one-paced) — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Held up)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.1% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #8 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 88 (446d ago · 1m · Class 3) — 3pts ABOVE the projected 85. 59% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 12 months.
Record on today’s going
2 wins from 12 runs, 3 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
1 win from 6 runs, 1 top-3 at Kempton Park
1 win from 3 runs, 1 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
George Bakerhere 11/123 · 9% · A/E 1.22Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 8th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 76 (Kempton Park, 12 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 74 is 1 lb under the 75 ceiling. A drop of 10 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb above today's median (OR 74 v field 72) · a field 8lb weaker than last time (median 80 then) (KEMPTON PARK · 12 Aug 26) · on our own book 3lb above the field (FHM 67 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
8thC4 · 7frated 664thC4 · 7frated 7212thC4 · 7frated 707thC4 · 7frated 8411thC3 · 1mrated 39
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LONGLAI (FR)best 92needs 85–8818 Apr 25 · TFR 82 · 1m · Standard · C320 Jun 25 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good · C32 Aug 25 · TFR 68 · 1m1f11y · Good · C324 Aug 25 · TFR 39 · 1m · Good to Firm · C38 Oct 25 · TFR 84 · 7f · Standard · C45 Nov 25 · TFR 70 · 7f · Standard · C419 Jun 26 · TFR 72 · 7f · Good · C412 Aug 26 · TFR 66 · 7f · Slow · C418 Apr 2512 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 2 Aug 25: 61 · 24 Aug 25: 50 · 8 Oct 25: 63 · 5 Nov 25: 61 · 19 Jun 26: 61 · 12 Aug 26: 63
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Baker · 506 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a runner returning from 60+ days off, changing jockey from the last run, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 4 reverse in 2026
Below their last winning mark3/2810.7%1.113/1225.0%1.20
In fields of 12-157/1026.9%1.092/345.9%1.03
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆14/1987.1%0.926/4912.2%1.06
Money drifting against this runner today ✦8/1286.2%1.192/375.4%1.04
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 446d ago · 1m · Class 3) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Benoit de la Sayette · last 14 days: 3/11 · at Kempton Park: A/E 0.88 (n129, raw 0.77) · with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n28, raw 1.55)
ConsensusFIG 10READ 11VAL 11POW 8MKT 70 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readFADE — last run result flattered by how the race unfolded on a pace-adjusted sectional read · SURGE faded → fade today
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in its favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path1014.5 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 101.1% v course avg 103.5% (−2.4) · top speed 40.6mph v 39.1 (+1.5)
Course form1 career win at this track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 13
+0.34 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 13
+0.66s
Slow away in 5 of its last 6 timed runs on the 0-20mph split — habitual, so the market already knows
Finishing power8th of 13
58pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 101.1% is vs its own average · +0.2 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.03× chance (10,785 runs)
Stride length4th of 13
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (+0.28 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.23 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Aug 26Kempton Park7fSlow48th6663647680—40.0-0.2298.7+0.89
19 Jun 26Newmarket7fGood44th7261657876True41.0+0.59100.2+0.94
5 Nov 25Kempton Park7fStd412th7061688082Fast early40.2-0.0899.2+0.36
8 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd47th8463738284True40.4+0.31106.9+0.57
24 Aug 25Goodwood1mGd/Frm311th3950588492True41.5+1.1895.8+1.02
2 Aug 25Goodwood1m1f11yGood315th6861708587.5True39.8+0.25105.8+0.19
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
12 Aug 2625.2229.68+18%9th of 118th£6.5k£209k3%36.00ran to expectation
19 Jun 269.0121.86+143%7th of 94th£5.9k£180k3%10.50outran the market
5 Nov 2513.919.20−34%4th of 1412th£14.1k£154k9%13.00underran the market
8 Oct 2525.6426.93+5%8th of 147th£4.5k£146k3%38.00ran to expectation
24 Aug 2557.2738.00−34%9th of 1111th£4.0k£214k2%120.00ran to expectation
2 Aug 2576.43100.00+31%12th of 1615th£4.9k£739k1%40.00underran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 3 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
12 Aug 26 slow away  ·  19 Jun 26 no extra  ·  5 Nov 25 slow away, never on terms  ·  8 Oct 25 checked in running, had to switch, kept on  ·  24 Aug 25 slow away  ·  2 Aug 25 never on terms
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.20 2f+1.30 3f+1.53 4f+1.40 5f+1.23 6f+1.00 7f+1.24 
Timed runs 2 Aug 25 to 12 Aug 26.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
ARCTICIAN (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses
12 Aug 26 · 7f · Slow — finished 8th vs 7th, 0.3L behind · OR 76 v 75 · race median 80 (today 72)
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
7 Sep 24 · 1m · Std — finished 5th vs 7th, 0.3L ahead · OR 87 v 86 · race median 88 (today 72) · stale — 24m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SAN JUANITO (read through PERCY'S LAD, FARASI LANE, MILETUS, TILTED KILT) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs POTOMAC RIVER (read through DAPPER GUEST, NOBLE GUEST, BRAVO ZULU, PHYSIQUE) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HERCULEUS (read through COGITATE, DAPPER GUEST, HUSCAL, BEST RATE) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through ONE MORE, METAVERSE, BEST RATE, PETER THE WOLF) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
10lb below its last winning mark (74 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 2.45)Lost roughly 4.0 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)A course winner (1 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“slowly away, rear, outpaced over 2f out, plugged on”
#11 SAN JUANITO MID
DRAW 6 · OR 70 · FHM 57 A● -13 · Rob Hornby / Mike Murphy
MARKET drifting 75 → 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 8+ / 2−
68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
63SPEED FIGURE · =11 OF 14 READ
41.93
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 2% chance
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 11pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
68.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 89
Speed Figure (FSF)
57 latest (12 Aug 26) · best 63 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance · 1m
1 win from 9 tries · in line with the market (1.03)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield and fades — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 94.06% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #11 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 89 (520d ago · 1m1f103y · Class 4) — 4pts ABOVE the projected 85. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it at some point.
Record on today’s going
2 wins from 9 runs, 5 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
0 wins from 3 runs, 0 top-3 at Kempton Park
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Mike Murphyhere 4/41 · 10% · A/E 1.53Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 8th in a Class 4 0-80 handicap off 74 (Kempton Park, 12 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 70 is 5 lb under the 75 ceiling. A drop of 5 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb below today's median (OR 70 v field 72) · a field 5lb weaker than last time (median 77 then) (KEMPTON PARK · 12 Aug 26) · on our own book 7lb below the field (FHM 57 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
8thC4 · 1mrated 6813thC4 · 1mrated 329thC4 · 1m75yrated —7thC4 · 1m1f104yrated 7810thC4 · 1m75yrated 53
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SAN JUANITObest 89needs 85–8822 Mar 25 · TFR 83 · 1m143y · Slow · C57 Apr 25 · TFR 89 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C425 Apr 25 · TFR 81 · 1m · Good to Soft · C223 May 25 · TFR 80 · 1m · Good · C419 Sep 25 · TFR 21 · 1m2f · Good to Soft · C4 · off-trip8 Oct 25 · TFR 53 · 1m75y · Soft · C413 Dec 25 · TFR 78 · 1m1f104y · Slow · C429 Jun 26 · TFR 32 · 1m · Slow · C412 Aug 26 · TFR 68 · 1m · Slow · C422 Mar 2512 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 19 Sep 25: 46 · 8 Oct 25: 47 · 13 Dec 25: 63 · 11 Jun 26: 25 · 29 Jun 26: 46 · 12 Aug 26: 57
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Mike Murphy · 299 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: mid-campaign, with a runner returning from 60+ days off, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 4 of 8 reverse in 2026
Over 7-8f trips ⇆1/601.7%0.7810/3925.6%1.45
At Kempton Park1/214.8%1.023/2015.0%1.10
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆11/1437.7%0.9513/8315.7%1.28
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦10/10010.0%1.148/6013.3%1.16
In fields of 12-15 ⇆1/422.4%0.922/2010.0%1.05
Below their last winning mark ⇆2/238.7%0.992/219.5%1.03
On the all-weather ✦14/13910.1%1.148/6811.8%1.07
In Class 4-5 company6/847.1%1.054/478.5%1.04
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 2 hold in both windows
At this time of year (Q3)4/488.3%1.000/240.0%0.80
Money drifting against this runner today ✦2/832.4%0.942/464.3%0.97
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 520d ago · 1m1f103y · Class 4) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Rob Hornby · last 14 days: 2/54 · at Kempton Park: A/E 0.90 (n327, raw 0.87) · with this yard: A/E 1.28 (n44, raw 2.1)
ConsensusFIG 11READ 12VAL 12POW 11MKT 130 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path70120 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 94.1% v course avg 103.5% (−9.4) · top speed 37.6mph v 39.1 (−1.5)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields12th of 13
-0.36 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 13
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power11th of 13
46pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 94.1% is vs its own average · −6.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.80× chance (7,046 runs)
Stride length8th of 13
7.09 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.08 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.13 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Aug 26Kempton Park1mSlow48th6857547477—38.2-0.96102.4-0.07
29 Jun 26Kempton Park1mSlow413th3246567783Fast early38.5-0.1992.2+0.00
11 Jun 26Nottingham1m75ySoft49th—25488080True37.2-0.2286.4+0.13
13 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow47th7863658282True37.7-0.27100.7-0.05
8 Oct 25Nottingham1m75ySoft410th5347538482True36.7-0.4391.9+0.46
19 Sep 25Newbury1m2fGd/Sft410th2146568682.5True38.1-0.1090.8+0.00
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
12 Aug 26100.94240.00+138%8th of 98th£1.5k£257k1%85.00ran to expectation
29 Jun 2677.51180.00+132%13th of 1413th£1.9k£200k1%1000.00ran to expectation
11 Jun 2646.3886.64+87%9th of 99th£2.1k£156k1%85.00ran to expectation
13 Dec 2517.0638.50+126%8th of 117th£5.6k£189k3%22.00ran to expectation
8 Oct 2521.9024.21+11%9th of 1110th£3.7k£148k2%23.00ran to expectation
19 Sep 2521.0838.00+80%11th of 1210th£3.4k£153k2%32.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
12 Aug 26 weakened  ·  29 Jun 26 clean  ·  11 Jun 26 weakened, tailed off, outpaced  ·  13 Dec 25 raced too keenly, weakened  ·  8 Oct 25 outpaced  ·  19 Sep 25 weakened
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fled 2f+0.08 3f+0.25 4f+0.29 5f+0.33 6f+0.20 7f+0.38 1m+1.18 
Timed runs 19 Sep 25 to 12 Aug 26.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs LONGLAI (FR) (read through PERCY'S LAD, FARASI LANE, MILETUS, TILTED KILT) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HAPPY BANNER (IRE) (read through FARASI LANE, TRANSPARENT) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs ARCTICIAN (IRE) (read through I'M WORKIN ON IT, FARASI LANE, MR BALOO, PERCY'S LAD) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs POTOMAC RIVER (read through GALLANT, MILETUS) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
12lb below its last winning mark (70 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)
LTO comment
“led briefly early, stayed prominent, ridden 2f out, weakened”
#12 ARCTICIAN (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 11 · OR 73 · FHM 68 A● -5 · Alec Voikhansky / Simon Dow
MARKET drifting 22 → 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
65SPEED FIGURE · #10 OF 14 READ
14.76
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 7% chance
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 13pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 85
Speed Figure (FSF)
63 latest (12 Aug 26) · best 65 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance · 1m
1 win from 12 tries · in line with the market (0.99)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: front-runner (cooked late) — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Prominent)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.32% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #5 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 85 (310d ago · 7f · Class 5) — level with the projected 85. 59% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 12 months.
Record on today’s going
7 wins from 33 runs, 15 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
5 wins from 24 runs, 9 top-3 at Kempton Park
0 wins from 5 runs, 1 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Simon Dowhere 12/117 · 10% · A/E 1.71
on the Racecourse Guide’s go-well list hereFlat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 7th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 75 (Kempton Park, 12 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 73 is 2 lb under the 75 ceiling. A drop of 10 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Sits 1lb above today's median (OR 73 v field 72) · a field 8lb weaker than last time (median 80 then) (KEMPTON PARK · 12 Aug 26) · on our own book 4lb above the field (FHM 68 v field FHM median 64)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
7thC4 · 7frated 668thC4 · 1mrated 507thC4 · 7frated 734thC4 · 1mrated 843rdC4 · 1mrated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ARCTICIAN (IRE)needs 85–88best 857 Apr 25 · TFR 75 · 7f · Standard · C57 May 25 · TFR 53 · 7f · Standard · C421 May 25 · TFR 73 · 1m · Standard · C513 Aug 25 · TFR 75 · 7f · Slow · C43 Sep 25 · TFR 82 · 1m · Standard · C511 Sep 25 · TFR 63 · 7f · Good · C41 Oct 25 · TFR 80 · 7f · Standard · C514 Oct 25 · TFR 64 · 1m · Standard · C43 Nov 25 · TFR 85 · 7f · Standard · C51 Dec 25 · TFR 80 · 7f · Standard · C420 Mar 26 · TFR 84 · 1m · Standard · C414 Apr 26 · TFR 84 · 1m · Standard · C46 May 26 · TFR 73 · 7f · Slow · C412 Jun 26 · TFR 50 · 1m · Soft · C412 Aug 26 · TFR 66 · 7f · Slow · C47 Apr 2512 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 1 Dec 25: 65 · 20 Mar 26: 61 · 14 Apr 26: 56 · 6 May 26: 62 · 12 Jun 26: 46 · 12 Aug 26: 63
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon Dow · 434 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: changing jockey from the last run, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 5 hold in both windows
Coming back after 15 to 45 days20/18111.0%1.147/5113.7%1.15
Over 7-8f trips20/2129.4%1.126/5910.2%1.12
At this time of year (Q3)10/1059.5%1.014/3810.5%1.05
At Kempton Park10/10010.0%1.251/166.2%1.01
Money drifting against this runner today ✦8/1266.3%1.244/3710.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
In fields of 12-15 ⇆8/7810.3%1.260/110.0%0.90
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample · the book's thin gate)5/2420.8%1.121/616.7%1.05
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 310d ago · 7f · Class 5) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Alec Voikhansky · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.14 (n72, raw 1.37) · with this yard: A/E 0.98 (n2, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 12READ 6VAL 6POW 6MKT 100 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~18% (model 22% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path19.529 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 102.3% v course avg 103.5% (−1.2) · top speed 39.8mph v 39.1 (+0.6)
Course form5 career wins at this track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields6th of 13
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 13
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power5th of 13
67pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 102.3% is vs its own average · +1.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.08× chance (7,470 runs)
Stride length10th of 13
7.06 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (−0.11 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.16 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Aug 26Kempton Park7fSlow47th6663657580—40.3+0.0796.0+0.30
12 Jun 26Goodwood1mSoft48th5046467779.5True36.9-0.4596.2+0.02
6 May 26Kempton Park7fSlow47th7362727877True40.6+0.9199.4+0.05
14 Apr 26Lingfield1mStd44th8456717977Slow early40.7-0.31109.6-0.07
20 Mar 26Lingfield1mStd43rd8461757878Slow early40.9+0.20109.0+0.22
1 Dec 25Kempton Park7fStd44th8065757878True39.4+0.01103.6+0.00
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
12 Aug 2620.6723.45+13%8th of 117th£9.7k£209k5%18.00ran to expectation
12 Jun 2634.8165.00+87%8th of 88th£3.3k£165k2%11.00ran to expectation
6 May 2622.8328.00+23%10th of 147th£6.0k£181k3%11.00outran the market
14 Apr 2612.178.62−29%4th of 114th£20.8k£230k9%4.40ran to expectation
20 Mar 2627.9036.00+29%8th of 103rd£4.0k£199k2%10.50outran the market
1 Dec 2516.6229.70+79%8th of 104th£5.8k£237k2%16.00outran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
12 Aug 26 never on terms, eased/not knocked about  ·  12 Jun 26 weakened ✓ in-play money believed it  ·  6 May 26 kept on, never on terms  ·  14 Apr 26 no extra  ·  20 Mar 26 kept on  ·  1 Dec 25 no extra
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.58 2f+0.57 3f+0.50 4f+0.57 5f+0.48 6f+0.54 7f+1.17 
Timed runs 1 Dec 25 to 12 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
RHYTHM N ROCK (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
21 May 25 · 1m · Std — finished 8th vs 12th, 6.75L ahead · OR 72 v 68 · race median 71 (today 72) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
HAPPY BANNER (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.1L ahead on today's terms · confirms
14 Oct 25 · 1m · Std — finished 9th vs 6th, 4L behind · OR 75 v 72 · race median 76 (today 72)
LONGLAI (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms
12 Aug 26 · 7f · Slow — finished 7th vs 8th, 0.3L ahead · OR 75 v 76 · race median 80 (today 72)
LADY MANZOR · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
20 Mar 26 · 1m · Std — finished 3rd vs 6th, 1.85L ahead · OR 78 v 78 · race median 78 (today 72)
Read through a common rival
vs SAN JUANITO (read through I'M WORKIN ON IT, FARASI LANE, MR BALOO, PERCY'S LAD) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs POTOMAC RIVER (read through DAPPER GUEST, BRAVO ZULU, JERSEY MAVERICK, STENMARK) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs HERCULEUS (read through COGITATE, EPICTETUS, DAPPER GUEST, NORTH VIEW) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, EPICTETUS, ELOUISE'S PRINCE, METAVERSE) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
AW-PROVEN — 7/33 on the all-weather2lb below its last winning mark (73 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayJockey goes well at this track (1.37x market expectation)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)A course winner (5 from 24 here)
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#13 SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 65 · FHM 46 A● -19 stale · Finley Marsh / Richard Hughes
MARKET drifting 5.5 → 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
44.5 FORMLAB FIGURE
54SPEED FIGURE · #14 OF 14 READ
69.96
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 1% chance
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 34.5pts off the top, proven at the trip; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
44.5 · ranked #13 here · career best 85
Speed Figure (FSF)
51 latest (14 Jun 26) · best 54 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance · 1m
2 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.73)
Days since last run
87
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: held-up closer — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Held up)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.81% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #13 of 13 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 85 (347d ago · 1m13y · Class 6) — level with the projected 85. 50% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 12 months.
Record on today’s going
4 wins from 14 runs, 6 top-3 on all-weather
the label barely moves on this surface — see the clock strip below
Record at this track
2 wins from 6 runs, 4 top-3 at Kempton Park
1 win from 3 runs, 2 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Richard Hugheshere 31/179 · 17% · A/E 1.14Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding2 SepSlow-0.10 s/f4 SepSlow+0.04 s/f5 SepSlow-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 8th in a Class 5 0-70 handicap off 65 (Salisbury, 14 Jun 26, turf). Today: Class 5 0-75 handicap; its 65 is 10 lb under the 75 ceiling. A rise of 5 lb in band ceiling.
Field strength · class context
Stands 7lb below today's median (OR 65 v field 72) · a field 6lb stronger than last time (median 66 then) (SALISBURY · 14 Jun 26) · on our own book 18lb below the field (FHM 46 v field FHM median 64)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
8thC5 · 1mrated 439thC5 · 1mrated 469thC5 · 7frated 69thC4 · 7frated 288thC4 · 7f36yrated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE)needs 85–88best 8526 Mar 25 · TFR 67 · 1m · Standard · C428 May 25 · TFR 62 · 7f · Standard · C47 Jun 25 · TFR 50 · 7f15y · Soft · C416 Jun 25 · TFR 35 · 6f11y · Good to Firm · C430 Jun 25 · TFR 63 · 1m · Good to Soft · C518 Jul 25 · TFR 20 · 1m · Good to Firm · C55 Aug 25 · TFR 44 · 6f · Good · C5 · off-trip24 Sep 25 · TFR 82 · 7f · Slow · C627 Sep 25 · TFR 85 · 1m13y · Standard · C625 Nov 25 · TFR 81 · 1m143y · Slow · C421 Jan 26 · TFR 44 · 7f · Slow · C43 Feb 26 · TFR 39 · 1m1f104y · Standard · C49 Mar 26 · TFR 54 · 7f36y · Standard · C427 Mar 26 · TFR 28 · 7f · Standard · C430 Apr 26 · TFR 6 · 7f · Standard · C515 May 26 · TFR 46 · 1m · Good · C514 Jun 26 · TFR 43 · 1m · Good · C526 Mar 2514 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 3 Feb 26: 50 · 9 Mar 26: 54 · 27 Mar 26: 49 · 30 Apr 26: 37 · 15 May 26: 37 · 14 Jun 26: 51
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hughes · 1247 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 3 reverse in 2026
Coming back after 46 to 90 days11/7015.7%1.015/2619.2%1.20
Below their last winning mark ⇆4/2615.4%1.006/3119.4%1.17
With a runner returning from 60+ days off ⇆12/8114.8%0.9511/5520.0%1.07
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 1 hold in both windows
Money drifting against this runner today ✦19/2427.9%0.937/1245.6%0.91
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 347d ago · 1m13y · Class 6) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~85 needs figure
The rider
Finley Marsh · last 14 days: 1/30 · at Kempton Park: A/E 1.14 (n207, raw 1.2) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n646, raw 1.07)
ConsensusFIG 13READ 13VAL 13POW 13MKT 80 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in its favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~5% (model 5% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 14 read)
Market path715.5 (09:06→18:00, drifting, 53 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 99.8% v course avg 103.5% (−3.7) · top speed 39.1mph v 39.1 (−0.0)
Course & fixturewon at this track in September 2025 (off 64) — 2 career wins at this track
Time of year4 of 4 career wins have come in this window of the season SEASONAL FLAG — this profile wins 15.7% (A/E 1.08, 2023-25) and 14.2% (A/E 1.11, 2026 holdout); persistently under-priced.
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 72 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=17606
Speed · vs its fields13th of 13
-0.51 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 13
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power13th of 13
40pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.8% is vs its own average · −1.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.93× chance (7,078 runs)
Stride length3rd of 13
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.170 m on this surface (+0.33 m) · +0.28 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.25× chance on all-weather (3,900 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood58th4351526566Fast early38.2-0.0198.5+0.10
15 May 26Newbury1mGood59th4637396762Fast early39.0-0.2993.4+0.44
30 Apr 26Lingfield7fStd59th637397069True39.8-0.7398.7+0.32
27 Mar 26Lingfield7fStd49th2849527276True39.6-1.24104.0+0.08
9 Mar 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd48th5454547477True38.9-0.82104.5+0.35
3 Feb 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd46th3950487678.5True37.5+0.0199.7+0.07
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
14 Jun 2640.99128.46+213%13th of 138th£2.2k£222k1%50.00outran the market
15 May 2648.9522.00−55%9th of 139th£8.0k£167k5%11.50ran to expectation
30 Apr 2612.0446.00+282%9th of 99th£6.7k£134k5%75.00ran to expectation
27 Mar 2661.02144.55+137%9th of 99th£1.7k£181k1%110.00ran to expectation
9 Mar 2624.2338.35+58%7th of 88th£5.4k£263k2%46.00ran to expectation
3 Feb 2622.7360.20+165%6th of 66th£4.8k£281k2%50.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
14 Jun 26 no extra, outpaced  ·  15 May 26 never on terms  ·  30 Apr 26 clean  ·  27 Mar 26 clean  ·  9 Mar 26 never on terms  ·  3 Feb 26 never on terms
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.79slow2f+0.83fast3f+1.06fast4f+1.03fast5f+1.04fast6f+1.02very slow7f+1.29very slow1m+2.43very slow
Timed runs 3 Feb 26 to 14 Jun 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · miss 45% · n=4228 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs LADY MANZOR (read through HAVANA TOUCH, BOLD SUITOR, DANDY KHAN, BELLA BISBEE) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs ASTEVERDI (read through PETER THE WOLF, GEO, CONDOTTI, NARMAR) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs LONGLAI (FR) (read through ONE MORE, METAVERSE, BEST RATE, PETER THE WOLF) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
vs GUNFIGHTER (IRE) (read through KIT GABRIEL, BOLD SUITOR, DARVEL, BLUE COLLAR LAD) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=8625 · null 50%
AW-PROVEN — 4/14 on the all-weather5lb below its last winning mark (65 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayProven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.73)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)A course winner (2 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“off pace, switched over 2f out, little impression”
The lean: LADY MANZOR · both orders settle in the nightly record either way. This report is a snapshot: figures, market and going are as of build time. · build 6c474e7the full settled record →  ·  ↑ back to top